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Adam Lasnik Google employee  
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(13 users)  More options Dec 13 2007, 6:26 pm
From: Adam Lasnik
Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2007 15:26:23 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Dec 13 2007 6:26 pm
Subject: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
According to our calculations, Webado has made nearly 10,000 posts in
our group here and in the process has helped countless webmasters.  To
celebrate, we're running a just-for-fun contest in her honor.

If you're up for a bit of entertaining prognostication, drop a reply
here guessing when Webado will make her 10,000th post (both date and
also time in Eastern Standard Time) and we'll see who gets closest.

Or feel to just chime in with those of us from the Google Webmaster
Help team in giving Webado a warm thank you for being such a great
member of our community.


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JLH  
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(11 users)  More options Dec 13 2007, 7:47 pm
From: JLH
Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2007 16:47:35 -0800 (PST)
Local: Thurs, Dec 13 2007 7:47 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
This rings a bell...

http://groups.google.com/group/Google_Webmaster_Help-chit-chat/browse...

I quickly found that multiple people guessed the same day/time so it
was nice to keep track on a calender (google has one of those)

On Dec 13, 5:26 pm, Adam Lasnik wrote:


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webado  
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(11 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 12:41 am
From: webado
Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2007 21:41:33 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 12:41 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Errr..... I missed that event myself it seems ....

ROFL

On Dec 13, 7:47 pm, JLH wrote:


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JLH  
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(11 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 3:14 am
From: JLH
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 00:14:10 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 3:14 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
All right I'll go first, as everyone appears kind of shy.

If you take a look at Webado's performance you'll know that her
posting rate can be described by the formula

Where Y = Number of Posts and X = Minutes

Y = -9E-09x^2 + 0.0214x + 5535.6

Solving for Y at 10,000 the obvious answer then becomes:

January 8, 2008 at 11:12:36 AM EST

On Dec 13, 11:41 pm, webado wrote:


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JohnMu Google employee  
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(11 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 4:10 am
From: JohnMu
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 01:10:20 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 4:10 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Yay, 10k posts :-). Thanks for being such an active member of our
community, webado!

That's a good approach, JLH. However, don't you need to take the
holidays into consideration? Does this mean webado will have more or
less time on her hands? Hmm. What are your holiday plans, webado?

I'll leave the guessing to you all :-).

John


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IceGiant  
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(12 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 6:06 am
From: IceGiant
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 03:06:40 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 6:06 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Look John...

By applying my own formula [which I have now patented], I would
reasonably expect Webado to reach the 10k post mark around noon
[12.31?] on December 29th.

HOWEVER... as JohnMu pointed out, this formula does not take into
account the fact that Christmas [Damn! I do apologise to any ethnic
minorities reading this for my flagrant use of the 'C' word, which
seems to cause so much offence all round, when I should really have
said 'Holidays'**]

In any case... Given the fact that 'The Holidays' fall right into the
middle of my calculations, I've had to make certain
adjustments[assuming of course that Webado celebrates Chr - DAMN!
DAMN! DAMN! - the Holidays in the traditional way, which bring my
'official guess' to January 3rd [mid-afternoon around 3.20]

Well done Chris :-)

Cheers

Sasch

**Ok, Sorry, but I'm off on one now.
I know I shouldn't rant, but I haven't had enough coffee or nicotine
yet today, so I'm 'in a mood'.
Anyway, seeing as we're not allowed to call it Christ - oops, almost
did it again - anymore, I vote that Hanukkah henceforth be known as
'Temple Rededication Day' and that Ramadan becomes 'Not Eating Month'.
Not being familiar with Buddhist holy festivals, I have no suggestions
to offer on that score.

Isn't it about time political correctness was curbed just a little
bit?
I mean 'Snowperson'? Honestly...
Gimme two potatos and a cucumber, and I'll prove to you it's a
snowman...


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IceGiant  
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(12 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 6:08 am
From: IceGiant
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 03:08:09 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 6:08 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> (both date and also time in Eastern Standard Time)

Err...

Adam?

What happened to GMT being the web's official time-zone? ;-)


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JLH  
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(11 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 10:21 am
From: JLH
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 07:21:46 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Dec 14 2007 10:21 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Oh you are getting tricky...so you think...of course I included the
holidays in my calculations, weekends, 2 hours of sleep a night,
Canadian stuff, birthdays, new years, et. al.  All I showed is the
final formula all of the modeling that went into getting to that was
the hard work.  It gets complicated when you consider the time
constraints required by holiday celebration weighed against the
natural human feelings of the desire to help more people that time of
the year.  I finally arrived at the conclusion that it was not
solvable by standard mathematical means and resorted to a converging
iterative process.  I of course didn't have enough computing power
here at the house, so I had to set up a SETI like network of 100s of
volunteers each running the simulation.  After all known scenerios
were calculated, I quickly set up a WOPR like room in the back of the
house (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WOPR)

Soon kids will be quoting Y = -9E-09x^2 + 0.0214x + 5535.6 like they
say E=mC^2 without knowing the proof or the work behind it.

"SHALL WE PLAY A GAME?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAcEzhQ7oqA

On Dec 14, 5:06 am, IceGiant wrote:


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Sebastian  
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(10 users)  More options Dec 14 2007, 9:36 pm
From: Sebastian
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 18:36:00 -0800 (PST)
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
You need to track Santa via NORAD coz Webado will submit her post
#10,000 when he crosses Anchorage coming from the north pole. Forget
all the holiday BS, that's for kids, geeks KISS. ;)
Sebastian

On Dec 14, 4:21 pm, JLH wrote:


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IceGiant  
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(12 users)  More options Dec 15 2007, 4:17 pm
From: IceGiant
Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2007 13:17:03 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sat, Dec 15 2007 4:17 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> You need to track Santa via NORAD coz Webado will submit her post
> #10,000 when he crosses Anchorage coming from the north pole.

North Pole?

Have you not been listening to the news?

Santa's located in the mountains on the borders of Kazakstahn, because
that's the optimum location on earth to get all his deliveries out of
the way in one night, whilst taking maximum advantage of time-
differences...


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IceGiant  
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(10 users)  More options Dec 16 2007, 3:02 pm
From: IceGiant
Date: Sun, 16 Dec 2007 12:02:29 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sun, Dec 16 2007 3:02 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> Oh you are getting tricky...so you think...

Now look here you mathematical shyster... ;-)

It is quite obvious that your formula is fundamentally flawed, despite
your use of WOPR** and SETI-like networks, as you have plainly
neglected to take the winter solstice and the northern lights into
account where your calculations are concerned...

By using my superior intellect, an old Abacus, and with the incessant
help of a load of Persian cats and the little green gnome who lives
under my hat, I can safely state that Zero-Hour will be on January 3rd
at 3.21PM (and 34 seconds)

**I remember going to the cinema to see WarGames. How sad is that?


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webado  
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(8 users)  More options Dec 16 2007, 4:54 pm
From: webado
Date: Sun, 16 Dec 2007 13:54:44 -0800 (PST)
Local: Sun, Dec 16 2007 4:54 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Hmm, January 3rd is a Thursday and since that's the first Thursday in
the month normally I'd be in a work meeting right about that time. Now
that's a boring proposition at the best of times (no such thing
incidentally that I can recall), so I might call in sick for that day
and work on building up my post count.... or go shopping for the
liquidation dregs left behind in stores after the holidays ... Might
toss a 3-sided coin and see what's more enticing ;)

On Dec 16, 3:02 pm, IceGiant wrote:


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EcoSea  
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(10 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 1:28 am
From: EcoSea
Date: Sun, 16 Dec 2007 22:28:00 -0800 (PST)
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
As she is like most people that are addicted to her computer and the
fact that she will probably, as she of the more romantic sex that
likes holidays and cats to extreme. She will take time off from work,
I bet she takes off a week at the holidays, so her counts will go up
dramatically I say

Dec 21 at dusk

 now I am not sure exactly how far north she is but I will guess that
falls about 3:15 PM

 You need to keep it simple to figure these thing out.

Congratulations Webado

On Dec 17, 4:54 am, webado wrote:


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Sebastian  
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(10 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 9:11 am
From: Sebastian
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 06:11:46 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 9:11 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
I can understand why my crappy post got only 1-star votes, but who's
the weirdo starring everything else down?
Sebastian

On Dec 17, 7:28 am, EcoSea wrote:


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EcoSea  
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(8 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 10:49 am
From: EcoSea
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 07:49:38 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 10:49 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
5 or don't bother is my motto

why do you care do you win some sort of prize like a invite to
pleasantville?

On Dec 17, 9:11 pm, Sebastian wrote:


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VLN  
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(9 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 10:50 am
From: VLN
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 07:50:57 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 10:50 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Webado, I saw your name at the top of chit chat and would like to
thank you personally for helping me on Dec 15th! I had almost given
up, but returned after midnight today to see if anyone else offered a
solution. You left very descriptive directions - perfect for my
primitive newbie skills, and it worked! (However, I may have created a
new problem for myself, so if you have the time and want to look it
over that same thread again, I'd be very appreciative.) Otherwise,
thanks again and congratulations on being recognized as someone who
has made a difference.

On Dec 17, 9:11 am, Sebastian wrote:


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Sebastian  
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(10 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 11:46 am
From: Sebastian
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 08:46:31 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 11:46 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
EcoSea, I don't care about my stars and I'll never win a prize.
Actually, I'm used to attract systematic 1-star votes from folks I've
disagreed with. What annoyed me was that somebody downrated all posts,
and most of them are excellent, in this thread. Neither Webado nor the
other members  deserve this kind of negative attention.
Sebastian

On Dec 17, 4:49 pm, EcoSea wrote:


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IceGiant  
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(9 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 5:31 pm
From: IceGiant
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:31:07 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 5:31 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> What annoyed me was that somebody downrated all posts,
> and most of them are excellent, in this thread. Neither Webado nor the
> other members  deserve this kind of negative attention.

Yes... that's been happening a lot lately...

And yes... you're quite right :-)


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IceGiant  
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(9 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 5:34 pm
From: IceGiant
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:34:45 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 5:34 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> Hmm, January 3rd is a Thursday and since that's the first Thursday in
> the month normally I'd be in a work meeting right about that time.

NOOOOOO!!! NOT A WORK MEETING!

My calculations have been thrown completely askew!

You will just have to cancel the work meeting and be sure to stay at
your computer to make that post at the right time, so my 'highly
scientific' prediction can be proved accurate. ;-)


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JLH  
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(7 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 7:52 pm
From: JLH
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 16:52:58 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 7:52 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Oh I think we have a pretty good idea who's being anti-social.  His/
her multiple personalities have plagued the group for a while now.

From Con Air:

"He's a fountain of misplaced rage. Name your cliche; Mother held him
too much or not enough, last picked at kickball, late night sneaky
uncle, whatever. Now he's so angry that moments of levity actually
cause him pain; give him headaches. Happiness, for that gentleman,
hurts."

On Dec 17, 4:31 pm, IceGiant wrote:


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JLH  
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(9 users)  More options Dec 17 2007, 9:10 pm
From: JLH
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 18:10:22 -0800 (PST)
Local: Mon, Dec 17 2007 9:10 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Okay, I don't want to start a controversy, but how do we decide the
actual numbers?

Looking at Webado's profile:
http://groups.google.com/groups/profile?enc_user=jhT_ri8AAABqX0ba682Y...

She has 9622 posts so far.

On the other hand on the groups about page:
http://groups.google.com/group/Google_Webmaster_Help/about

She is credited with 9405 posts.

I'm really not concerned with how it's done, just so it's done in a
fair and accurate manner which will declare me the winner and afford
me the spoils of that grand victory of fame, fortune, and glory.

On Dec 17, 6:52 pm, JLH wrote:


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IceGiant  
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(8 users)  More options Dec 18 2007, 3:48 am
From: IceGiant
Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 00:48:38 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Dec 18 2007 3:48 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> Okay, I don't want to start a controversy, but how do we decide the
> actual numbers?

Hmmm... although my original [copyright protected & trademarked]
formula was based on the number of posts shown in her profile, I have
every reason to believe that the number of posts shown in the group's
'About' section provides a greater level of accuracy, so I vote that
this be the figure used for making the 10k time prediction.

With this said, I will now have to equip my abacus with a suitable
power source [possibly driven by Persian cats?] so as to enable me to
adjust my calculations before letting Chris know when to actually sit
down and make her ten thousandth post. :-Þ


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JohnMu Google employee  
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(7 users)  More options Dec 18 2007, 7:58 am
From: JohnMu
Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 04:58:27 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Dec 18 2007 7:58 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
I think the lower number doesn't take account the posts made in the
old Sitemaps subgroup (back when it was the only group). Looking at
the dates, the difference pretty much matches the posts made up to
June 2006.

So far we have (all times in EST):

Dec 21, 2007 at 03:15    PM - EcoSea (**)
Dec 24, 2007 at ??          - Sebastian (*)
Jan  3, 2008 at 03:20    PM - IceGiant
Jan  8, 2008 at 11:12:36 AM - JLH

Come on - plenty of slots left!! (maybe someone can keep track of the
dates in the meantime)

John

(*) when Santa crosses Anchorage coming from the north pole.
(**) at dusk


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IceGiant  
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(7 users)  More options Dec 18 2007, 11:37 am
From: IceGiant
Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 08:37:45 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Dec 18 2007 11:37 am
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment

> Jan  3, 2008 at 03:20    PM - IceGiant

Whoa! I haven't finished welding my cats to the abacus yet!

Thart said, I've noticed some discrepancies between my own post-count
in the profile & About pages during the past few months, and from my
own point of view, the 'About' one seems more accurate.

Cheers

Sasch


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JLH  
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(9 users)  More options Dec 18 2007, 12:08 pm
From: JLH
Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2007 09:08:48 -0800 (PST)
Local: Tues, Dec 18 2007 12:08 pm
Subject: Re: Webado nears the 10K mark... but YOU guess the exact moment
Ask and ye shall receive:

http://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=an76pvk09ak9bl94obtropduq8%4...

On Dec 18, 6:58 am, JohnMu wrote:


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