Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 unadjusted state
exit polls.
http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7%
higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Gore led by
48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7
million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6
million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2004, 116.7 million votes were recorded; Bush led by
51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a
10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Obama won by
63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%).
A total of 131.37 million votes were recorded. Obama won by 69.5-59.9m
(52.87-45.62%).
There were 10.16m late votes recorded after Election Day. Obama won by
59.2-37.5%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase
in margin.

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because
1) They were cast using paper ballots, not on unverifiable DREs
2) Since the winner was known on Election Day, there was nothing to
gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 state and national
unadjusted exit polls. The exit poll discrepancies from the recorded
vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. But the
unadjusted state exit polls were generally very close to the late
vote. The largest deviations were in states with only a few thousand
late votes –as to be expected. Assuming that the late votes were
representative of the state electorate, they can be viewed as super
exit polls with thousands more respondents than standard exit polls.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Obama won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% - a
close match to his 59.2% late recorded share. There were 83,000 exit
poll respondents. The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a
subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a
61-37% margin and had a 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

Obama's late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the
following states. He had...
64.5% of New Jersey's 224,000 late recorded votes and 63.8% in the
unadjusted exit poll.
67.9% of Maryland's 277,000 late votes and 67.2% in the exit poll.
70.7% of New York's 584,000 late votes and 71.5% in the exit poll.
54.6% of Ohio's 500,000 late votes and 56.3% in the exit poll.
51.6% of Florida's 405,000 late votes and 52.1% in the exit poll.

68.9% of Illinois' 183,000 late votes and 66.3% in the exit poll.
47.5% of Mississippi's 77,000 late votes and 48.4% in the exit poll.
49.7% of Tennessee's 19,000 late votes and 47.7% in the exit poll.
49.1% of South Carolina's 117,000 late votes and 47.6% in the exit
poll.
46.2% of Kansas' 32,000 late votes and 46.1% in the exit poll.

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million
2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m
(Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the
official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).  This red flag indicates that
since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no
longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when
Bush was declared the winner.  The media reported that Bush won by
3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-
Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded
votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6%
(76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660
respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is
representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m.
Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his
final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote
Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted
for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5%
voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am
Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and
the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the
correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to
the True Vote, namely:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote
shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes
compared to initial  recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late
recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his
initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states).
Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near
zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-
reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was
created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and
national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far
Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m
initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53%
winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a
56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National
Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.