1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.6-41.8% Average Democratic Margin

[Richard Charnin]

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.6-41.8% Average
Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011

Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals. The
unadjusted numbers are confirmed in other surveys.

For example, the Final 2004 National Exit Poll increased Bush’s
unadjusted exit poll approval rating by 2.5% and Republican Party-ID
by 2.5% in order to change Kerry’s 4.8% exit poll margin to Bush’s
2.5% recorded margin.

This workbook contains a comparative analysis of unadjusted state exit
polls and recorded votes for the 1988-2008 Presidential Elections.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=0

The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on Census votes cast, mortality,
prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The
TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was
within 0.1% of Obama’s 57.9% unadjusted exit poll share.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/the-1988-2008-state-and-national-true-vote-model-t/

The Democrats led in the 1988-2008 election averages by the following
margins…
1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%,
2) unadjusted exit poll: 51.6-41.8%,
3) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%,
4) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.0-41.5%,
5) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS) method: 50.8-43.1%

The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the
following states:
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA
1992: FL AZ IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AL CO GA IN MS NC SC VA
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MN MO NC TN TX VA
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT