Scientist makes dire earthquake prediction*

A major earthquake in the Coachella Valley is long overdue, she says,
and her research foresees 'a whole new level of disaster.'

By David Kelly
August 11, 2007

RANCHO MIRAGE, Calif. -- Sandwiched between the powerful San Andreas and
San Jacinto faults, the Coachella Valley could be the epicenter of the
most devastating earthquake in the country, one that is already 300
years overdue, a government scientist warned Thursday.

"There will be several thousand dead and billions of dollars in damage,"
said Lucy Jones, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey and a
member of the California Seismic Safety Commission. She also said a
devastating quake could topple buildings as far away as Los Angeles.

This apocalyptic vision was presented to members of the seismic safety
panel who met in Rancho Mirage to discuss how the Coachella Valley would
handle a catastrophic earthquake. The meeting took place the day a quake
registering magnitude 4.6 shook up Chatsworth.

The power of that quake was negligible compared with the scenarios laid
out by Jones.

Historically, major temblors have struck the Coachella Valley every 150
years, on average, but for reasons no one can explain, it's been quiet
for 300 years.

"Whatever it is that makes for a long interval is happening now, and we
know that long interval can't last forever," Jones said. "This is an
overdue fault."

Stresses are building under the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults,
which could cause the ground to move as fast as 10 feet a second during
an earthquake. The Northridge quake in 1994 moved about 6 feet a second.

A likely scenario would have a magnitude-7.8 earthquake strike in the
Salton Sea, extending north and west toward Palmdale. Jones predicted
the shaking could last more than 100 seconds, kill thousands, destroy
homes, collapse the I-10 and I-15 freeways, ignite petroleum pipelines
and leave untold thousands homeless in potentially searing desert heat.
The long-term effects, she said, could be akin to the economic collapse
of New Orleans and the Gulf region following Hurricane Katrina.

"This will have long-term economic implications across the nation," she
said.

It would be even worse should the quake hit during Santa Ana winds,
possibly adding fires as another major element to the disaster, Jones said.

Jones said Los Angeles would not be spared. The tremendous forces
released by the slipping faults would send shock waves through the earth
that could easily collapse tall buildings in Los Angeles the way the
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which hit near Watsonville, collapsed the
Bay Bridge between Oakland and San Francisco about 50 miles away.

"This is a whole new level of disaster," she said.

Riverside County emergency officials said that unlike tornadoes and
hurricanes, which occur every year, earthquakes hit sporadically, and
it's hard to get people to prepare for them.

"In times of disaster we have everyone's ear, but when it comes to
preparedness we can't get anyone's attention," said John Hardcastle,
emergency services coordinator for Palm Springs.

Kathleen Henderson spends two or three days a week traveling throughout
the county urging residents to be ready.

"My biggest concern is the heat and air conditioning for the children
and the elderly," said Henderson, emergency services coordinator for the
Riverside County Fire Department. "If the quake happened during the
hottest period of the year, I think we would have a lot of heat-related
emergencies and deaths. We have a lot of elderly people. They will need
to talk to a doctor about how much medication they should have on hand."

Jones, chief scientist for the USGS' multi-hazards demonstration
project, is putting together a detailed report describing the likely
effects of a major Coachella Valley earthquake.

"If something happens, no one can say you haven't tried to warn us,"
Rancho Mirage Mayor G. Dana Hobart told Jones. "We should put a box on
the front page of the paper each day saying we are 3,600 months and 75
days overdue for a quake to remind people to be ready."