Global Warming A Factor In Displacing One Billion By 2050
Pastor Dale Morgan
Global Warming A Factor In Displacing One Billion By 2050*
The figures include 645 million who will migrate because of development
projects, and 250 million because of phenomena linked to global warming
like floods, droughts and famine.
London (AFP) May 15, 2007
At least one billion people risk fleeing their homes over the next four
decades because of conflicts and natural disasters that will worsen with
global warming, a relief agency warned Monday. In a report,
British-based Christian Aid said countries worldwide, especially the
poorest, are now facing the greatest forced migration ever -- one that
will dwarf those displaced by World War II.
In what at the time amounted to "the largest population displacement in
modern history," it said, 66 million people were displaced across Europe
by May 1945, in addition to the many millions more in China.
Today there are an estimated 163 million people worldwide who have been
displaced by factors like conflict, drought and flooding as well as
economic development projects like dams, logging and grain plantations,
it said.
"We believe that forced migration is now the most urgent threat facing
poor people in the developing world," said John Davison, author of
"Human Tide: the real migration crisis."
While the figure is already "staggeringly high," the report warned that
"in future, climate change will push it even higher.
"We estimate that over the years between now and 2050, a total of one
billion people will be displaced from their homes," the 52-page report said.
The figures include 645 million who will migrate because of development
projects, and 250 million because of phenomena linked to global warming
like floods, droughts and famine, it said.
It said the conflict in western Sudan's Darfur region, which has
displaced more than two million people, was not just driven by political
forces but also by competition for increasingly scarce water and land to
graze animals.
"Security experts fear that this new migration will fuel existing
conflicts and generate new ones in the areas of the world -- the poorest
-- where resources are most scarce," said a statement accompanying the
report.
"A world of many more Darfurs is the increasingly likely nightmare," it
added.
The problem is all the more alarming as those displaced in their own
countries have no rights under international law and no official voice,
it added.
The report also cited case studies in Colombia, Mali and Myanmar, also
known as Burma, as major causes for concern.
With millions having fled a civil war between paramilitary groups and
guerrillas in the last 20 years, it said, Colombians are now seeing land
taken by paramilitaries-turned businessmen setting up palm oil and other
plantations.
In Myanmar, it said ethnic minority groups like the Karen had suffered
decades of violence, displacement and persecution only to see the
military rulers now use the freed space for dams, logging and palm oil
plantations.
Climate change, it said, will drive the growth of grain-producing
plantations as rich countries will raise demand for bio-fuels over crude
oil in a bid to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
"In Mali, the threat from climate change is more immediate," it said.
Crop yields have fallen sharply with erratic and declining rainfall
levels, forcing farmers to move to feed their families.
Christian Aid, which was created to help refugees from World War II,
published the report to mark the 50th door-to-door fundraising in
Britain. It hopes to raise 15.5 million pounds (22.72 million euros,
30.7 million dollars).
Source: Agence France-Presse