2007 Deadliest for US Troops in Iraq
Pastor Dale Morgan
Dec 30, 8:39 PM EST
*2007 Deadliest for US Troops in Iraq*
By BRADLEY BROOKS
Associated Press Writer
BAGHDAD (AP) -- The second half of 2007 saw violence drop dramatically
in Iraq, but the progress came at a high price: The year was the
deadliest for the U.S. military since the 2003 invasion, with 899 troops
killed.
American commanders and diplomats, however, say the battlefield gains
against insurgents such as al-Qaida in Iraq offer only a partial picture
of where the country stands as the war moves toward its five-year mark
in March.
Two critical shifts that boosted U.S.-led forces in 2007 - a
self-imposed cease-fire by a main Shiite militia and a grassroots Sunni
revolt against extremists - could still unravel unless serious unity
efforts are made by the Iraqi government.
Iran also remains a major wild card. U.S. officials believe the
neighboring country has helped quiet Iraq by reducing its flow of
suspected aid to Shiite fighters, including materials needed for deadly
roadside bombs.
But Iran's apparent hands-off policies could come under strain as Shiite
factions - some favoring Iran, others not - battle for control of Iraq's
oil-rich south.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, will increasingly look to the uneven Iraqi
security forces to carry the load in 2008 as demands for an American
exit strategy grow sharper during the U.S. election year.
Britain, the main U.S. coalition partner in Iraq, is gradually drawing
down its forces and other allies, including Poland and Australia, are
contemplating full-scale withdrawals in the coming year.
"We're focusing our energy on building on what coalition and Iraqi
troopers have accomplished in 2007," Gen. David Petraeus told a group of
Western journalists on Saturday. "Success will not, however, be akin to
flipping on a light switch. It will emerge slowly and fitfully, with
reverses as well as advances, accumulating fewer bad days and gradually
more good days."
That arc of progress played out in the raw statistics of U.S. and Iraqi
casualties.
American military deaths peaked in May with 126 troops killed. It was
then that the U.S. began ramping up its attacks against insurgent
strongholds, leading to increased clashes in Baghdad and other key areas
across central Iraq.
Seven months on, commanders and analysts say America's aggressive
strategy of targeting al-Qaida in Iraq strongholds is paying off: U.S.
casualties have dropped sharply. As of Sunday night in Baghdad, 21
deaths were reported in December, one more than in February 2004, which
was the lowest monthly total of the war.
The 899 deaths in 2007 surpassed the previously highest death toll in
2004, when 850 U.S. soldiers were killed. The total for 2007 could rise
slightly; occasionally the military reports new casualties a few days
after they occur. The military reported the non-combat related death of
a soldier on Sunday.
At least 3,902 members of the U.S. military have died since the
beginning of the war. Of those, at least 3,175 died as a result of
hostile action, according to the military's numbers.
Iraqi civilian deaths have tracked that decline and overall violence
across the country is down roughly 60 percent, American commanders say.
Since the influx of some 30,000 U.S. troops that began in June, the
lessening violence has meant that new problems have emerged.
"There certainly are ample challenges out there in the new year. In some
respects, the positive developments in the latter half of 2007 also
represent the challenges of 2008," U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker said
during a recent briefing.
An example, Crocker said, is how the improving security situation is in
part luring back Iraqis who took refugee in neighboring Syria, Jordan
and elsewhere.
"The return of refugees - a good thing obviously, but a process is going
to have to be carefully managed so that it doesn't sow the seeds of new
tension and instability," he said.
Along with the increase in American troops, Iraq's lessening violence
has been attributed to a self-imposed freeze on activities by the Mahdi
Army - the militia of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Another important change was the quick growth of mostly Sunni
anti-al-Qaida in Iraq groups, or "awakening councils," who once fought
against U.S. and Iraqi forces but now point their guns toward the
insurgents.
Of the more than 70,000 fighters in the awakening councils, only 20
percent are expected to be absorbed into the Iraqi security forces. The
rest are to receive job training through a joint $300 million program
Iraqi and American officials are creating.
That program is in its beginning stages and there are few details about
how it will be carried out, but analysts say it must succeed or the
Sunni fighters who do not join Iraq's military may sell their services
to the insurgents.
On Saturday, a new audiotape by Osama bin Laden warned Iraqi Sunnis
against fighting al-Qaida, saying "the most evil of the traitors are
those who trade away their religion for the sake of their mortal life."
Keeping the militia of al-Sadr and other powerful Shiite leaders on the
sidelines also means keeping Iran to its promise to halt the flow of
weapons and training to them, officials say.
"How lasting a phenomenon that will be and how Iran will define and play
its role in Iraq in 2008 I think is going to be very important to the
long-term future of the country," Crocker said.
Iraqi civilian deaths also peaked in May with 2,155 killed. That fell to
718 in November and 710 in December. For the year, 18,610 Iraqis were
killed. In 2006, the only other full year an AP count has been tallied,
13,813 civilians were killed.
Civilian deaths are compiled by the AP from hospital, police and
military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and
photographers. Insurgent deaths were not included. Other counts differ
and some have given higher civilian death tolls.
Those numbers paint an increasingly optimistic picture, but James
Carafano, a security expert with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in
Washington, D.C., warned dangers lurk.
"The number of people who have the power to turns things around appears
to be dwindling," he said regarding extremists. "But there are still
people in Iraq that could string together a week of really bad days."
While that might not mean a return to the bloodiest moments of the Iraq
war, Carafano said it could seriously rattle the Iraqi government as it
tries to bring about some form of political reconciliation in 2008, a
key to long-term security.
"People have to be really careful about over-promising that this is an
irreversible trend - I think it is a soft trend," he said of the
declining violence.
Carafano pointed to the problem of integrating the Sunni awakening
councils into Iraqi society and keeping the Shiite militias out of the
fight. If either of those situations changes, he said, increased
bloodshed in the country is likely.
Those warnings in mind, Carafano said he thought the "surge" in U.S.
troops had to a large extent met one of its important goals: to allow
the Iraqi government to focus on questions of governance instead of
dealing only with security.
He likened the increase in troops to the Marshall Plan that largely
rebuilt Europe after World War II and demonstrated U.S. commitment to
that continent.
"I think the surge made that statement to Iraqis," Carafano said.
"Here's America, fighting an unpopular war and things aren't going so
well and we turn around and send more troops in. To the good guys and
the bad guys is was a reaffirmation that Americans aren't going to walk
away from this."
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The Associated Press News Research Center in New York contributed to
this report.