Clashes fuel fears of war in Horn of Africa
Pastor Dale Morgan
Clashes fuel fears of war in Horn of Africa*
Fierce fighting between the Islamist militias and government forces in
Somalia threatens to ignite the whole region
Xan Rice in Nairobi
Sunday December 10, 2006
The Observer
Somali women parade their weapons at a protest in Mogadishu
Somali women parade their weapons at a protest in Mogadishu. Photograph:
Abukar Albadai/EPA
Heavy clashes between Islamist militiamen and forces loyal to Somalia's
government continued for a second day yesterday, as fears of an imminent
war in the Horn of Africa mounted.
The fighting centred around Maddoy, 25 miles south of Baidoa, the
temporary capital and the only town that the weak transitional federal
government controls. Witnesses who reported heavy shelling said
Ethiopian troops formed part of the government contingent.
While information remains sketchy - due to the dangers in Somalia even
local correspondents for the international news agencies are reporting
on the clashes from Mogadishu, 150 miles to the east - both sides
suffered casualties, perhaps more than two dozen.
Article continues
The fighting appear to be the fiercest yet between militiamen allied to
the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), which controls most of
south-central Somalia, and Ethiopian-backed government troops. The SCIC
has been steadily approaching Baidoa in recent weeks and has taken most
of the surrounding towns and villages.
Salad Ali Jelle, the government's Deputy Defence Minister, told Reuters
yesterday that 'war could start any minute because we are so close to
each other'.
Many analysts and diplomats in Nairobi see a full-scale conflict in the
coming weeks and months as inevitable. Though peace talks are scheduled
to resume in Khartoum on Friday, a government spokesman said that they
were 'a waste of time' and both sides have continued preparing for war.
With Ethiopia firmly backing the government - it has sent at least 6,000
troops into the country, analysts believe - and Eritrea taking the side
of the Courts, the looming conflict could plunge the entire region into
turmoil.
The latest clashes came two days after a controversial United Nations
security council resolution authorising the deployment of African troops
to protect the government. President Abdullahi Yusuf's regime remains
fragile and fractured, and has been unable to win over the Somali
population since its formation two years ago. Its position has been made
increasingly tenuous by the rise in power of the Courts, which took
control of the capital, Mogadishu, last June, ending 15 years of rule by
warlords and bringing law and order.
Though they were set up to dispense justice and carry out social
programmes, the Courts soon proved a strong political force. The SCIC
contains moderate clerics seeking a stable Islamic state as well as
hardliners whose goal is to reunite a 'greater Somalia' that includes
parts of Kenya and Ethiopia.
The SCIC are also protecting terror suspects with links to al-Qaeda,
although the number and provenance of the jihadists is unknown. For the
US, however, their presence is a sign that the Courts are a threat to
world peace that must be contained. Washington helped the Mogadishu
warlords in their failed struggle against the SCIC earlier this year, a
strategy that unwittingly helped the SCIC. In Somalia the warlords and
the concept of foreign intervention arouse similar loathing.
The US strategy has attracted similar controversy. Despite warnings from
analysts that the deployment of foreign peacekeepers would be viewed as
taking sides and could trigger a war, America pushed strongly for last
Wednesday's security council resolution. European Union countries, which
are sceptical about whether deployment is wise, or even feasible,
demanded that the peacekeeping force exclude front line states such as
Ethiopia.
Even so the reaction from the Courts was immediate. Condemning the
resolution, the SCIC vowed to fight any foreign troops and to remove the
Ethiopians by force. While troops from Ethiopia have the clear advantage
militarily - the Courts do not have an air force or tanks - analysts say
any conflict is likely to be protracted because the Islamist militias
will adopt guerrilla tactics.