Israel plans for war with Iran and Syria
Pastor Dale Morgan
The Sunday Times September 03, 2006
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Israel plans for war with Iran and Syria*
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, New York
THREATENED by a potentially nuclear-armed Tehran, Israel is preparing
for a possible war with both Iran and Syria, according to Israeli
political and military sources.
The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in Israel. A
key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid to Palestinian
militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the two biggest state
sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a far greater danger to
Israel’s existence, defence insiders say.
“The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence
agenda, higher than the Palestinian one,” said an Israeli defence
source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General Eliezer Shkedi,
the commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the “Iranian
front”, a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces. His job will be to
command any future strikes on Iran and Syria.
The Israeli defence establishment believes that Iran’s pursuit of a
nuclear programme means war is likely to become unavoidable.
“In the past we prepared for a possible military strike against Iran’s
nuclear facilities,” said one insider, “but Iran’s growing confidence
after the war in Lebanon means we have to prepare for a full-scale war,
in which Syria will be an important player.”
A new infantry brigade has been formed named Kfir (lion cub), which will
be the largest in the Israeli army. “It is a partial solution for the
challenge of the Syrian commando brigades, which are considered better
than Hezbollah’s,” a military source said.
There has been grave concern in Israel over a military pact signed in
Tehran on June 15 between Iran and Syria, which the Iranian defence
minister described as a “mutual front against Israeli threats”. Israel
has not had to fight against more than one army since 1973.
During the war in Lebanon, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, the Iranian founder
of Hezbollah, warned: “If the Americans attack Iran, Iran will attack
Tel Aviv with missiles.”
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, both Iran and Syria have ballistic missiles that can cover most
of Israel, including Tel Aviv. An emergency budget has now been assigned
to building modern shelters.
“The ineptness of the Israeli Defence Forces against Hezbollah has
raised the Iranians’ confidence,” said a leading defence analyst.
In Washington, the military hawks believe that an airstrike against
Iranian nuclear bunkers remains a more straightforward, if risky,
operation than chasing Hezbollah fighters and their mobile rocket
launchers in Lebanon.
“Fixed targets are hopelessly vulnerable to precision bombing, and with
stealth bombers even a robust air defence system doesn’t make much
difference,” said Richard Perle, a leading neoconservative.
The option of an eventual attack remains on the table after President
George Bush warned on Friday that Iran must not be allowed to develop
nuclear weapons.
While the American State Department favours engaging with President
Bashar Assad of Syria in the hope of detaching him from the Iranian
alliance, hawks believe Israel missed a golden opportunity to strike at
Syria during the Hezbollah conflict.
“If they had acted against Syria during this last kerfuffle, the war
might have ended more quickly and better,” Perle added. “Syrian military
installations are sitting ducks and the Syrian air force could have been
destroyed on the ground in a couple of days.” Assad set off alarm bells
in Israel when he said during the war in Lebanon: “If we do not obtain
the occupied Golan Heights by peaceful means, the resistance option is
there.”
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Syrian army briefly captured the
Israeli strategic post on top of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights.
Some Israeli analysts believe Syria will try again to take this post,
which overlooks the Syrian capital, Damascus.
As a result of the change in the defence priorities, the budget for the
Israeli forces in the West Bank and Gaza is to be reduced.
The Israelis are integrating three elite brigades that performed well
during the Lebanon war under one headquarters, so they can work together
on deep cross-border operations in Iran and Syria.
Advocates of political engagement believe a war with Syria could unleash
Islamic fundamentalist terror in what has hitherto been a stable
dictatorship. Some voices in the Pentagon are not impressed by that
argument.
“If Syria spirals into chaos, at least they’ll be taking on each other
rather than heading for Jerusalem,” said one insider.