Climate Change Carrys Huge Hidden Costs
Pastor Dale Morgan
Climate Change Carrys Huge Hidden Costs*
AFP graphic showing temperature rises by continent in the past 100 years.
by Richard Ingham
Paris (AFP) April 02, 2007
Climate change will inflict steadily rising costs that could become
astronomical if greenhouse gas emissions rise unabated and countries
delay preparations for the likely impacts, UN experts will say next week.
Their vast report will shed light on the costs from heightened water
stress, tropical storms, floods, droughts, species loss and human
disease this century as a result of global warming.
"(The) vulnerabilities could be considerable," warns the 1,400-page
document on the impact of climate change.
The report is due to be issued in Brussels on Friday by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), gathering top
specialists in climate science, economics, biology and other disciplines
under the UN banner.
They will meet for four days to finalise the document, marking the
second out of three volumes in the IPCC's massive update of knowledge
about climate change. It is the first such review since 2001.
The bill for climate change will depend on atmospheric levels of
greenhouse gas, which is principally caused by burning fossil fuels, and
on the effort to adapt to its effects, according to a draft seen by AFP.
Experts disagree widely as to the ultimate dollar figure, as the
calculation has many variables.
The equation changes, for instance, if one estimates the impact over the
short or the long term, factors in the cost of biodiversity loss or not
or attributes damage from extreme weather events to man-made global
warming or to a natural phenomenon.
"Depending on the assumptions used... total economic impacts are
typically estimated to be in the range of a few percent of global
product for a few degrees (Celsius) of warming," it says.
But there are also many unknowns, it adds.
Climate change can have a knock-on effect in many areas and there are
also poorly-understood triggers that scientists fear could dramatically
accelerate the warming.
To give an indication, estimates range from a benefit of three dollars
per tonne of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere -- mainly because warming
would open up frozen lands in the northern hemisphere to agriculture --
to a cost of more than 400 dollars per tonne.
In 2005, around 7.9 billion tonnes of CO2, the principal greenhouse gas,
were released into the atmosphere, according to the Global Carbon
Project, a research organisation.
In the first volume of its report, issued in February, the IPCC
predicted a temperature rise in the likely range of 1.8-4.0 C (3.2-7.2
F) by the end of the century.
The upcoming report makes these points:
-- As the temperature rises, so will the "social costs," or the OVERALL
ECONOMIC BILL caused by every tonne of CO2.
"It is virtually certain the real social cost of carbon and other
greenhouse gases will rise over time; it is very likely that the rate of
increase will be two to four percent per year," says the report.
Depending on the scenario of CO2 concentrations, "by 2080, it is likely
that 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will be experiencing water scarcity; 200
to 600 million hunger; two to seven million more per year, coastal
flooding."
-- A modest rise could open up huge areas of land for AGRICULTURE in
North America, Northern Europe and Russia. But sub-Saharan Africa would
lose farmland because of less rainfall while yields for wheat in South
Asia and for rain-fed rice production in China would also be badly hit.
A very high increase (5.5 C, or 9.9 F) would widely damage crop and
livestock production. Global cereal prices would rise by 30 percent,
according to one study.
-- The biggest potential costs will come from EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS,
such as storms, droughts and floods, which are "very likely" -- a 90
percent certitude -- to become more powerful and possibly more frequent
too. Their impact will be amplified by a rise in the world's population,
which is projected to reach between 8.7 and 9.3 billion by 2030, of
which two billion could be slum dwellers whose homes are typically at
risk from inundation and landslide.
"Costs of major [weather] events can range from several percent of
annual regional GDP" for large economies to "more than 25 percent in
smaller areas that are affected by the events," says the report.
It notes that Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005,
inflicted total economic costs of more than 100 billion dollars. A
British assessment in 2005 suggested that annual weather-related damages
to land use and property in Britain could increase by three to nine
times by the 2080s.
-- A big rise in SEA LEVELS would be very costly, as it would swamp
low-lying coastal regions and deltas and threaten small island states,
but is considered a low probability.
A rise of one metre (3.25 feet) would cost 944 billion dollars, almost
half of it in Asia, according to the study. In February, the IPCC said
the global sea level would rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres (7.2
and 23.2 inches), but could be boosted if icesheets melt faster.
-- REDUCING carbon emissions would help to brake the warming, and
PREPARING for the effects will reduce the costs.
For instance, if sea levels rose by 65 cms (26 inches), an exceptional
tide would cause damage of 5.2 billion dollars in China's booming Pearl
River delta; flood defences and other preparations, though, would cost
only 400 million -- a saving of 4.8 billion dollars.
Up to the middle of the century, a mix of mitigation and adaptation will
be effective, "but even a combination of aggressive mitigation and
significant investment in adaptive capacity could be overwhelmed by the
end of the century."
Source: Agence France-Presse