New Sunspot Is Harbinger Of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk For Electrical Systems
Pastor Dale Morgan
New Sunspot Is Harbinger Of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk For
Electrical Systems
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First official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24.
by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Jan 07, 2008
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it
increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline
communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions,
showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the cycle's first
sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said.
"This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist
Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. "In this
case, it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase
over the next few years."
A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the
surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is
expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar
storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can
occur at any time.
During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may
head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical
communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms
can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global
Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell
phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a
large part of the globe.
"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based
technologies means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today
than in the past," said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under
secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
"NOAA's space weather monitoring and forecasts are critical for the
nation's ability to function smoothly during solar disturbances."
Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar
experts, NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March
2008, plus or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those
predicting a strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the
new cycle takes over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it
will be a strong season with many sunspots and major storms, said
Biesecker. Many more sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge
before scientists consider the new cycle dominant, with the potential
for more frequent storms.
The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest visible spot to
appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its
high-latitude location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity
leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a
new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and
sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those
from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.
SWPC is the nation's first alert for solar activity and its affects on
Earth. The center's space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the
next 11-year solar "season" and warn of individual storms occurring on
the sun that could impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAA's nine National
Centers for Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of
the International Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11
member nations.