21st century wars can wage out of control
Pastor Dale Morgan
21st century wars can wage out of control*
Published: June 16, 2009 at 12:06 PM
MARTIN SIEFF || UPI Senior News Analyst
Sometimes wars go exactly the way the governments or political movements
that launch them expect. But more often than not, they don't. The secret
to success in launching a war is to be able to wrap it up fast and to
know when to stop. Those were techniques that the United States was not
able to apply in either Afghanistan or Iraq.
The German army since the 1860s had become the global masters of swift
lightning campaigns that demolished opponents in a matter of weeks.
Their wars of 1862 against Denmark, 1866 against Austria-Hungary and
1870-71 against France all followed this pattern in their decisive
campaigns. But they needed good summer and early fall weather to do it.
For in the spring and fall, heavier rains turned roads to mud and
prevented rapid advances.
In Iraq, however, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his
planners bungled the occupation of Iraq, put far too few ground troops
in there to secure law and order, and completely failed to anticipate
the Sunni Muslim insurgency that grew to civil war scale over the next
three and a half years.
In 1914, Helmut von Moltke the Younger and his planners of the imperial
German army were confident that their Schlieffen Plan would crush France
in a matter of weeks by the end of August. They planned a colossal
enveloping attack swinging through Belgium. But the Schlieffen Plan did
not work. The German attack bogged down against the French and was
driven back from Paris in the Battle of the Marne. Four years of hellish
trench warfare followed on the Western Front.
In 1939, aided by the new tactical doctrines of armored warfare and
close air support -- soon to be known as "blitzkrieg," or "lightning
war" -- the German plan for a brisk, efficient campaign against Poland
that would be conveniently over by fall worked perfectly.
German declarations of war came at the beginning of August 1914 and at
the beginning of September 1939. The late Professor Hans G. Schenk, a
leading expert on modern European history at Oxford University, liked to
remark that the German general staff were so orderly that they liked to
start world wars on the first of the month in order to keep their
records straight.
At the beginning of the 21st century, advanced industrial societies are
far less geared to the rhythms of bringing in their harvests. Also, no
great powers have fought directly since U.S. and Chinese forces clashed
by the hundreds of thousands in their undeclared war in Korea in
1950-53. But the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait showed that traditional
patterns of history did not end with the collapse of communism. And both
Russia and the United States have repeatedly resorted to the direct use
of military power to achieve their political and strategic goals over
the past two decades.
Despite the arguments of American political analyst Francis Fukuyama to
the contrary, the collapse of communism did not mean the "The End of
History" and the automatic start of a new, peaceful, open and trusting
era among the nations of the world. Even as he argued that view,
frightful genocidal massacres killed more than 1 million people in
Rwanda and wars of ethnic cleansing rocked the Balkans.
Indeed, Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of the most eminent and effective of
modern U.S. national security advisers, once dismissed the Fukuyama
hypothesis with a terse comment: "After the end of history comes -- more
history."
The coming years of the 21st century look likely to be a grim, ironic
fulfillment of Brzezinski's prophecy as governments ruling more and more
people compete for increasingly expensive and scarce resources in land,
food, oil, gas and precious minerals and metals. It will also be a time
to remember that the horrors of history can erupt on unsuspecting
societies when they least expect it.