Climate report predicts deadly heat waves, flooding in Europe*

Employees fill a grave after a funeral ceremony in the Jewish cemetery
of Pantin, France, in August 2003. Tens of thousands died during the
blistering summer of 2003 across Europe. Global warming could trigger
more heat waves, which are a major concern on a continent unaccustomed
to sweltering temperatures.

By Eliane Engeler, Associated Press Writer

GENEVA — Dying dolphins in the Mediterranean, reduced livestock in
Britain, the extinction of plants in the Alps and frequent heat waves
across the continent — this is what is awaiting Europe in the next
decades due to climate change, according to a report released Wednesday.

The bleak outlook was outlined in the second of four expert reports
explaining how global warming is changing life on Earth. Scientists with
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a summary of
their findings Friday and published the chapter on Europe on Wednesday.

Heat waves are a major concern on a continent unaccustomed to sweltering
temperatures. There used to be just one or two days a decade when
temperatures in Basel, Switzerland, reached more than 95°F, for example.
In the future, that will happen 10 to 14 days a year, said Martin
Beniston, a University of Geneva professor who contributed to the report.

A heat wave struck Europe in 2003, leading to the deaths of tens of
thousands of people and causing $15 million in agricultural damage. More
could be on the way, particularly in western France, Germany and
Switzerland, as well as areas of England and southern Europe, Beniston said.

"At least one summer out of two will be at least as hot as 2003 ... by
the end of this century," he said.

Climate change poses numerous other health risks: greater numbers of
micro-bacteria affecting water quality, worsening air pollution, earlier
and longer pollen seasons and the increased risk of skin cancer due to
ozone depletion.

According to the report, more than half of Europe's plant species also
will be endangered or face extinction by 2080 because of rising
temperatures.

"Species are at risk in particular in the Alps," said Andreas Fischlin
of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich and lead author
of the report.

Dolphins in the Mediterranean Sea could die on a "large scale" from
diseases triggered by rising water temperatures, while the icy breeding
grounds seals need to reproduce in far northern Europe will diminish
considerably.

Hotter summers and droughts will also threaten livestock such as pigs
and broiler chickens in Britain, and droughts could reduce the
productivity of crops in Ireland, the report says.

Southern Europe will be more severely affected by global warming than
countries in the north, the panel said. The region's hot and semiarid
climate will become even warmer and more vulnerable to drought. With
hotter summers, tourists will likely shift their Mediterranean vacations
to the spring or autumn, or avoid southern Europe altogether, the report
said.

With warmer European winters, less energy will be needed for heating
homes and businesses, but torrid summer temperatures will escalate the
demand for cooling systems.

By 2100, heating requirements will decrease 20 to 30% in Finland and
around 40% in Switzerland. But scientists estimate that in some parts of
southern Europe, such as Italy or Spain, electricity needs for cooling
will increase by 50%.

Sea levels around the planet are expected to rise about two to four
times faster than today, the report says, predicting an elevation of
nearly 3 feet by 2100. In Europe, sea levels may rise even 50% higher
than this, according to the panel.

Up to 2.5 million people across the continent may experience coastal
flooding by 2080, leading to land loss, the salinization of groundwater
and the destruction of houses, the report warns.

In northern Europe, winters will be warmer and more rain and water
run-off is expected to lead to forest growth and an increase in
agricultural productivity. But greater flooding, coastal erosion and the
melting of glaciers and permafrost are likely to offset the beneficial
effects.

Still, Europe is relatively well equipped to deal with the effects,
Beniston said.

"It is going to be less dramatic than in the developing world," he said,
adding that Europe's health systems should be able to cope with many of
the negative impacts.

The report recommends a range of measures to adjust to climate change:
accommodating floods through expanded flood plain areas, developing
detailed coastal management plans, increasing natural reserves to
protect species, introducing new varieties of better-adapted crops,
promoting alternate tourism activities, and implementing early health
warning systems.