World population to reach nine billion
Pastor Dale Morgan
World population to reach nine billion*
From correspondents in London
Agence France-Presse
March 12, 2009 03:10am
THE world population is projected to exceed nine billion in 2050, up
from 6.8 billion this year and seven billion early in 2012, according to
new UN estimates.
Most of the additional 2.3 billion people will swell the population of
the developing world, estimated to soar from 5.6 billion this year to
7.9 billion in 2050, and to spread among the 15-59 age group (1.2
billion) and those 60 or over (1.1 billion), the data showed.
The 2008 Revision of the official UN populations projections forecast
minimal change in the population of the more developed nations, which
should rise from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion during the same period.
That population would have in fact dipped to 1.15 billion without the
projected net migration from developing to developed countries, expected
to average 2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050, it noted.
During the 2010-2050 period, major net receivers of foreign migrants are
projected to be the United States (1.1 million annually), Canada
(214,000), Britain (174,000), Spain (170,000), Italy (159,000), Germany
(110,000) Australia (100,000) and France (100,000).
Major countries of net emigration are expected to be Mexico (334,000
annually), China (309,000), India (253,000), the Philippines (175,000)
and Pakistan (161,000).
The population of the 49 least developed nations is meanwhile slated to
double from 0.84 billion this year to 1.7 billion in 2050. Growth in the
rest of the Third World is estimated to be robust, but less rapid, with
its population increasing from 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion between now
and 2050.
Future growth would depend on the future direction of fertility rates,
with fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to
2.02 children per woman in 2045-2050, according to the most probable
scenario.
The data, prepared by the Population Division of the UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, however show that slowing population growth
resulting from reductions in fertility leads to population aging.
In the more developed countries, 22 per cent of people are already 60
and over and that proportion is expected to reach 33 per cent in 2050.
By then, the number of older persons in the developed world is expected
to be more than twice that of children.
By contrast, just nine per cent of the population of developing
countries today is aged 60 or over but the proportion will more than
double by 2050 to reach 20 per cent.
The study incorporates findings of the most up-to-date national
population censuses and of several specialised population surveys
conducted around the world.