Global-warming gases set to rise by 57 percent *

PARIS, Nov 7 (AFP) Nov 07, 2007

Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57 percent by 2030 compared
to current levels, leading to a rise in Earth's surface temperature of
at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the
International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its annual report on global energy needs, the Paris-based agency
projected greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1.8 percent annually by
2030 on the basis of projected energy use and current efforts to
mitigate emissions.

The IEA saw scant chance of bringing this pollution down to a stable,
safer level any time soon.

It poured cold water on a scenario sketched earlier this year by the
Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN's
paramount authority on global warming and its effects.

The IPCC said that to limit the average increase in global temperatures
to 2.4 C (4.3 F) -- the most optimistic of any of its scenarios -- the
concentration of greenhouse gases would have to stabilise at 450 parts
per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

The IPCC warned that, to achieve this goal, CO2 emissions would have to
peak by 2015 at the latest and then fall between 50 and 85 percent by 2050.

But the 2007 edition of the IEA's World Energy Outlook saw no peak in
emissions before 2020.

To achieve the 450ppm target would mean that CO2 from energy sources
would have to peak by 2012, and this would require a massive drive in
energy efficiency and switch to non-fossil fuels, the report said.

"Emissions savings (would have to) come from improved efficiency in
fossil-fuel use in industry, buildings and transport, switching to
nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of CO2
capture and storage in power generation and industry," the IEA said.

"Exceptionally quick and vigorous action by all countries and
unprecedented technological advances, entailing, substantial costs,
would be needed to make this case a reality."

Under the IEA's most optimistic scenario, which takes into account
measures that are currently in the planning stage for tackling
emissions, greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by one percent per year,
rather than 1.8 percent on present trends.

Emissions would decline steadily beyond 2030, translating into an
eventual rise in temperatures of "about" three C (5.4 F), IEA analyst
Trevor Morgan said.

In contrast, under the IEA's most pessimistic scenario, warming could
reach six C (10.8 F) if China and India continue their strong growth
relentlessly, using coal as a principal energy source.

By 2030, the biggest polluters would be China, the United States, India,
Russia and Japan, the IEA said.

In a massive report issued this year, the IPCC said that since 1900, the
mean global atmospheric temperature had risen by 0.8 C (1.44 F) and
levels of CO2, which account for about three-quarters of greenhouse-gas
output, are now at their highest in 650,000 years.

This temperature rise has already caused glaciers, snow and ice cover to
fall back sharply in alpine regions, reduced the scope of Arctic sea ice
and caused Siberian and Canadian permafrost to retreat.

By 2100, global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C
(1.98 F) and 6.4 C (11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels, the IPCC said.

Heatwaves, flooding, drought, tropical storms and surges in sea level
are among the events expected to become more frequent, more widespread
and/or more intense this century, the scientists said.