Kyoto isn't working, prepare for climate change, say scientists*

By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
(Filed: 04/09/2006)

The Kyoto agreement to cut greenhouse emissions is "ineffectual" and the
world should prepare for the effects of climate change, the nation's
biggest general science meeting will be told tonight.

Developing drought-tolerant crops, constructing flood defences,
improving building insulation or banning building close to sea level are
as important as cutting emissions, according to Frances Cairncross, the
president of the British Association and chairman of the Economic and
Social Research Council.

"We need more sheltered public spaces. It is going to be either sunnier
or rainier," she says. Plants, insects and animals that need to migrate
north away from hotter climates should be provided with species
corridors, among many other measures.

"Adaptation policies have had far less attention than mitigation, and
that is a mistake," says Miss Cairncross. "We need to think now about
policies that prepare for a hotter, drier world."

Miss Cairncross says the Kyoto agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions
is having little impact. India and China, representing a third of
humanity, have not signed up and the United States "does not take any
notice".

Developing a successful global deal will mean "persuading this
generation to accept sacrifices on behalf of posterity; and persuading
countries that will gain from climate change, or lose little, to take
action not on behalf of their own grandchildren but of the descendants
of people in other nations".

"We cannot relocate the Amazon or insulate coral reefs — so we need
mitigation too. But the Government could and should put in place an
adaptation strategy right away."

Despite the arguments about the mix between renewables, nuclear and
fossil fuels, the bottom line is that, "with present technologies, no
combination of existing energy sources can conceivably bring about the
reductions in energy use that we need, or at least, not without a
disruption that is politically unimaginable".

Extreme rainfall has become more frequent and intense over the past 40
years in parts of Britain, particularly in Scotland and the North of
England. Scientists from Newcastle University, who analysed UK weather
records from 1961 to 2000, say the findings provide further evidence of
climate change.

They also suggest that the five million people who live near rivers — 10
per cent of the UK population — can expect to be flooded with increasing
regularity in the future, which has implications for the management of
flooding and water resources.

• The Festival of Science is at the University of East Anglia and across
the city of Norwich from Sept 2 to 9