China to modernize nuclear weapons capability*

By Richard Spencer in Beijing
Last Updated: 9:24PM BST 08/05/2008

China is undertaking a dramatic overhaul of its nuclear weapons in an
effort to modernise and expand its arsenal.

Chinese nuclear weaponry has fallen behind those of other major powers

One of the world's leading arms control experts has said that the
Chinese have realised that their nuclear weaponry has fallen behind
those of other major powers and might not survive a first strike.

Bates Gill, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(Sipri), said that as a result it was developing more flexible delivery
systems, including from submarines, as well as the capacity to use
multiple warheads.

"Among the major nuclear powers China stands out in its effort to
modernise, expand and improve its nuclear weapons capability," he said
at a conference in Beijing.

China's first nuclear test took place amid huge patriotic pride in 1964.

But Chairman Mao was famously ambiguous about such weapons, once calling
them "paper tigers".

Its arsenal, estimated at between 100 and 200 warheads, is the smallest
of the big powers – the United States, Russia, Britain and France. The
US is currently updating its missiles and warheads.

China now has a stated policy of never using nuclear weapons against a
non-nuclear country and never as a "first strike". But Dr Gill said its
static nuclear delivery system had left it vulnerable to a first strike.

A sea-based capability would "make it less likely that an adversary
could wipe out the possibility of a response," he said.

The Telegraph disclosed last week that China is constructing a secret
nuclear submarine base to bolster its capabilities in the Pacific.

Dr Gill said the advances China was making raised questions about
whether it could be an active participant in future arms control or
reduction talks.

His comments were notable for being presented alongside a spokesman for
China's own arms control association, which is publishing the Chinese
language version of Sipri's annual report.

Teng Jianqun, a former navy colonel in the People's Liberation Army,
said the increase in military spending was partly a result of improving
equipment and the living conditions for its troops, and partly due to
refocusing strategy across the Taiwan strait.

On the positive side, Dr Gill said that China had made a complete
about-turn in policy on weapons proliferation compared with 15 years
ago, when it actively sought to undermine international treaties.

He also said that despite criticisms over its supplies of weapons to
Africa and other unstable regions, its share of the global arms trade
had fallen to about two per cent.