Heatwaves to get even hotter, experts warn
Pastor Dale Morgan
Heatwaves to get even hotter, experts warn*
Press Association
September 11, 2006
Guardian Unlimited
Heatwaves across Europe are likely to become significantly hotter and
more frequent during this century, experts warned today.
Scientists believe summer temperatures could increase by between 4C and
10C if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere double as expected over
the next 100 years, according to a paper published today in the Journal
of Climate.
They found that heatwaves lasting five days or more, like the one that
affected much of the UK in July, are likely to occur almost every year
by 2100 - and could even return several times each summer.
This July's extreme temperatures are now reached approximately once
every 20 years.
Scientists at the Hadley Centre for Climate Protection and Research at
the Met Office in Exeter made the predictions after simulating changing
atmospheric and weather conditions.
The Met Office said the predicted temperatures were higher than
expected, and described the results as "sobering".
The scientists also examined possible reasons for the higher
temperatures, and found that drier soils resulting from hotter summers
and less cooling at night were largely responsible.
James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Hadley Centre, and one
of the report's authors, said the predicted temperature increases were
significant.
He said: "Clearly these are substantial changes. There's no question
about it.
"If you add these temperature increases on to typical hot summer days,
they will obviously take you well outside the range of temperatures we
have experienced so far."
The predicted recurrence of heatwaves over the course of a single summer
had also surprised the team.
He added: "If these predictions are correct, even in a broad sense, then
there is no question that significant adaptation would be needed to
enable people to cope with the conditions."
He said the research released today had focused specifically on
heatwaves, but the team was hoping to expand climate models to predict
other changes to weather patterns.