North Korean nuclear test could unleash 'ash of death'*

TOKYO, Oct 8 (AFP) Oct 08, 2006

If North Korea tests an atom bomb, neighboring countries should hope its
technology is sound, as a failed experiment could unleash potentially
deadly radiation across Northeast Asia, experts said.

A failed test would also aggravate the political fallout as China,
Russia and South Korea -- which support a conciliatory approach to the
communist state -- would likely suffer the most besides North Korea itself.

North Korea, in a dramatic announcement last week that it will test its
first atom bomb, said "safety will be thoroughly secured" -- a possible
reference to an underground experiment.

A series of reports based on diplomats and intelligence data have said
that North Korea has drilled a hole in a mountain near the northern town
of Chiktong for the nuclear test.

If conducted properly, a test either inside a mountain or underground
would contain radiation.

But the technical prowess of the impoverished state, which apparently
failed in July to test-fire a long-range missile, remains largely a mystery.

Japan's conservative Sankei Shimbun newspaper said Saturday that North
Korea was believed to have dug into a mountain for a test. But, citing
Japanese government-backed research, it warned a surface test could
bring disaster.

If North Korea were to conduct its test above ground, radioactive
fallout -- known as the "ash of death" -- would fly to the northern half
of Japan, parts of South Korea and Russia and a vast eastern area of
China within 54 hours, the daily said.

Such a scenario would revive memories of the Chernobyl disaster, in
which radioactive dust spread across a large swathe of Europe after
explosions at a nuclear reactor in Ukraine.

Up to 9,000 people are expected to die from illness due to Chernobyl,
according to UN figures disputed by environmentalists.

Even if North Korea intends to contain radiation, experts questioned
whether it has the level of technology to conduct a nuclear test
completely safely.

"Their nuclear test is feared to cause radioactive contamination to some
extent, considering the lack of money and technology on a radiation
shield," said Koh Yu-Hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at
Seoul-based Dongkuk University.

"Due to geological reasons, it's hard for North Korea to dig a deep
vertical underground tunnel for a nuclear test," Koh said.

"We worry that the test will contaminate underground water."

Narushige Michishita, a North Korea specialist at Japan's National
Institute for Defense Studies, said if Pyongyang's nuclear test ends up
polluting the region, ironically enough it would be its allies that
would be most affected.

"I don't think radiation would fly to Japan," Michishita said. "At the
farthest, it would spread to China, Russia and South Korea -- the
North's buddies."

China, North Korea's largest provider of aid, and Russia have warned
against further isolating the communist state. Both Beijing and Moscow
wield veto power at the UN Security Council, where Japan and the United
States have threatened a harsh response if Pyongyang goes ahead with a test.

South Korea also has adopted a so-called "sunshine policy" of trying to
engage its estranged communist neighbor.

North Korea -- which US President George W. Bush branded part of an
"axis of evil" -- said it would test a nuclear bomb due to hostility by
the US.

Pyongyang last year agreed in principle to give up its nuclear program
in exchange for aid and security guarantees. But it walked out of
six-nation talks in November to protest US sanctions on a North
Korean-linked bank.

Japan, the only country to have suffered nuclear attack, is the most
concerned about North Korea, which fired a missile over its main island
in 1998.

Baku Nishio, a senior member of Japan's non-profit Citizen's Nuclear
Information Center, feared long-term consequences from a North Korean test.

"Radiation could start leaking out of the ground afterwards," Nishio
said. "We don't even know what scale of test the North Koreans want to
conduct."