Intelligence Analysts Eye Climate Change
Pastor Dale Morgan
Intelligence Analysts Eye Climate Change*
Friday May 4, 2007 3:46 AM
By KATHERINE SHRADER
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Top intelligence analysts are diving into the
politically sensitive issue of climate change, but some Democrats in
Congress are demanding even more.
The House Intelligence Committee approved a provision late Wednesday as
part of a spy budget bill that would require the National Intelligence
Council to produce its highest-level assessment - a National
Intelligence Estimate - specifically on climate change.
The bill, which the House could take up next week, calls on analysts to
study the political, social, agricultural and economic risks associated
with climate change over the next 30 years.
Republicans rejected the endeavor as an unnecessary distraction from
higher priorities.
Yet the Office of the National Intelligence Director said it has begun
working on the national security implications of climate change.
``The intelligence community necessarily explores a number of long-term
issues that may have an effect on U.S. national security, including
potential national security implication of global climate change,''
spokesman Ross Feinstein said in a statement Thursday.
The research, an intelligence official said, will not address the
scientific foundations of global climate change scenarios. ``That
determination will be left up to the scientists,'' said the official,
who spoke on condition of anonymity about internal policy issues.
Among questions that some are asking: Will drought and weather changes
create mass migrations that could threaten governments? Will U.S.
military bases be affected by rising sea levels?
Intelligence agencies long have studied the security and economic
effects of social and environmental changes, such as scarce resources,
disease, mass migrations and national disasters.
In 2002, there was a National Intelligence Estimate on the next wave of
HIV/AIDS; in 2004, one on the geopolitics of energy.
In a statement, Michigan Rep. Peter Hoekstra, the House Intelligence
Committee's top Republican, questioned Democrats' intelligence
priorities, saying the report would divert scarce resources to study
global warming.
Republicans, he said, worked to focus on terrorists, rogue nations and
U.S. enemies.
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., went a step further, sponsoring an
amendment to prohibit ``environmental spying.'' The proposal failed.
``Our government should not commit expensive spy satellites and human
intelligence sources to target something as undefined as the
environment,'' Issa said.
The committee chairman, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, dismissed
suggestions the committee was doing a disservice to intelligence
agencies and stressed the national security need for such research.
``Climate change can have a serious impact on military operations and
exacerbate global tensions,'' he said.
A Democratic committee aide also said the vast majority of the
information used by intelligence analysts could come from unclassified,
openly available sources and data in the government's possession. The
aide was authorized to speak to reporters only if not identified.
The aide said that the committee's deliberations focused extensively on
a recent report from 11 top-ranking retired military officers who found
that global climate change presents a national security threat that
could affect the country and military operations, as well as heighten
global tensions.
Retired Army Gen. Gordon Sullivan, chairman of a military advisory board
that drafted the report, said the review avoided politics by looking at
the possible security implications of climate change, not examining the
science behind it.
``In my view, the trend suggests that we should apply some scholarship -
some security-related scholarship - to this issue so we understand the
implications of what appears to be significant changes in our climate,''
he said.
The report examined how climate change could lead to social
destabilization. Among other findings, it said that impaired access to
food and water, violent weather, rising sea levels and other changes may
create large numbers of migrants and raise tensions.
``Many governments, even some that look stable today, may be unable to
deal with these new stresses,'' the report said. ``When governments are
ineffective, extremism can gain a foothold.''
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On the Net:
National Intelligence Council: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC-home.html
House Intelligence Committee: http://intelligence.house.gov/
Report from the retired military officers:
http://securityandclimate.cna.org/