Overpopulation to bring death and destruction to planet
Pastor Dale Morgan
Overpopulation to bring death and destruction to planet*
* Story Highlights
* India on path to become most populous country
* Overpopulation will tax water supplies worldwide
* Largest population growths occurring in developing nations
By Ann Hoevel
(CNN) -- By the year 2050, China will no longer be the most populous
country in the world.
India will see its population grow by 700 million people by 2050, the
U.S. Census bureau estimates.
That distinction will pass to India, where more than 1.8 billion people
could be competing for their country's resources, according to the U.S.
Census Bureau's International Data Base.
The 2007 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the United
Nations Population Division set China's current population at around 1.3
billion people, and India's at around 1.1 billion. If population
continues to grow at the estimated rate, such rapid growth in India
between now and mid-century could lead to overpopulation and an
uncertain future for the environment and the people living there.
And while organizations like the Population Institute and the United
Nations Population Fund are working to promote the human rights and
environmental consequences of overpopulation, not everyone views the
newest population estimates with pessimism.
"Nothing ever continues at its present rate, neither the stock market
nor population growth," said Doug Allen, the dean of the school of
Architecture at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and an expert in
the history of cities and urban design, which he's taught for more than
31 years.
"There is a substantial body of evidence that the world population will
flatten out in about 30 years," he said. "Built into that model would be
an assumption that more of the world's population will become urban, and
as such the population will begin to decline."
Citing historical evidence of falling birthrates in urban populations,
Allen looks to Italy as a current example of the phenomenon.
"Italy right now [is] not at a point where it can sustain its current
level. And I don't think that's because people in Italy have suddenly
become aware of the need to conserve resources. I think it has more to
do with decisions that are made by families on the margin not to have as
many children."
Consequences of overpopulation
Overpopulation occurs when a population's density exceeds the capacity
of the environment to supply the health requirements of an individual,
according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Environmentalists have long been concerned about the resources
threatened by rapidly growing human populations, focusing on phenomenon
such as deforestation, desertification, air pollution and global
warming. But the worst-case scenario for people experiencing
overpopulation, according to Lawrence Smith, president of the Population
Institute, is a lack of fresh, clean water.
"If the water goes, the species goes," he said.
"That sounds kind of alarmist," Smith conceded, "considering there's
water all around us, but 97 percent plus is saltwater, and the
freshwater that we use to sustain ourselves is just native to 3 percent.
... So the accessibility of water, the competition for water, the
availability of water is going to be a major, major threat," he said,
noting world population growth estimates at more than 9 billion people
by 2050.
Nine billion is an exceptional amount of people, considering the world's
population only reached 1 billion in 1830, according to the Population
Institute, a nonprofit organization that works to fund population and
family planning programs around the world.
By 1999, world population reached 6 billion, and in the relatively short
time between 2007 and 2050, there could be roughly 2.4 billion more
people on Earth needing clean water, space and other natural resources
from their environment in order to survive.
Governments facing overpopulation will also struggle to manage waste,
said Allen. "Handling your waste and the public health consequences of
not handling it well is the biggest problem that will be faced in
rapidly growing urban areas in the developing world." When London,
England, faced a population boom in the 1850s, for example, its
infrastructure was not prepared for the excess waste, which resulted in
Cholera outbreaks.
"Huge outbreaks," said Allen. "Fifty-thousand people dying over the
summer. That's the kind of thing that in the developed world we no
longer have problems with, but in the developing world are very, very real."
Smith said that 97 percent of world population growth between now and
2050 will occur in the developing world, where governments face serious
economic and social challenges.
"I would say most of this is in sub-Saharan Africa, where by every other
health indicator, they rank at the bottom," Smith said. "This growth
rate is taking place despite the high levels of HIV and AIDS and
[tuberculosis] and malaria."
Health care -- and the lack of it -- is also a factor in the rising
populations in developing countries, according to Stan Bernstein, United
Nations Population Fund senior policy adviser.
"We've seen a global trend of people wanting smaller families, but in
the poorer settings that's not quite the case yet," Bernstein said. "And
it's certainly not the case within countries that the poor [do not] have
access to the kinds of services that the wealthy avail themselves of."
Globally, Bernstein said the poorest fifth of people in countries with
rapid population growth have twice as many children, on average, as the
wealthy people in those same countries.
Birthrates make a difference
The massive growth in developing nations is due in large part to
fertility rates, where women during their reproductive years will have
an average of five children, said Smith. "That's considerably higher
than it is in the developed world."
In addition to the growing demands of developing nations, emerging
countries like China and India are rapidly industrializing, said Smith.
"Their demands for food alone will have considerable impact on global
markets."
China's government has instituted population control methods in order to
curb growth. Their controversial "one child" policies have garnered an
uneasy reception, especially in rural populations, where people complain
of stiff fines or forced sterilizations and abortions as a result of
breaking population laws.
Traditionally, rural populations are larger than urban populations, said
Smith. This is because rural families need to be larger in order to work
and live off the land, and urban populations -- with better education,
health care and family planning opportunities -- offer parents the
luxury of choosing how many children they will have, he said.
This year is the first year that rural and urban populations are nearly
equal, according to the United Nations Population Fund's annual report.
This creates a mixed bag of concerns, according to Smith, that include
susceptibility of young urban populations in poor countries with weak
governments to recruitment for terrorism and conditions of instability.
"We have never in the history of the world experienced urban growth
rates or metropolitan growth rates at the same level that we are
experiencing now," said Allen.