Devastating Earthquake May Threaten Middle East's Near Future, Geologist
Predicts*

Science Daily — The best seismologists in the world don’t know when the
next big earthquake will hit. But a Tel Aviv University geologist
suggests that earthquake patterns recorded in historical documents of
Middle Eastern countries indicate that the region’s next significant
quake is long overdue.

Damage in Jerusalem's Old City following a July 11, 1927, earthquake.
One of the first earthquakes on the Dead Sea Fault to be recorded by
modern seismographic techniques, it reached 6.2 on the Richter scale.
The epicenter was in the northern part of the Dead Sea. (Credit:
American Colony Hotel, American Colony Collection)

A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the
politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire
consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel Aviv
University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this imminent
danger, Marco, from the school’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary
Sciences, has taken an historical approach to earthquake forecasting by
using ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in
his assessment. The past holds the key to the future, he says.

“All of us in the region should be worried,” explains Marco, who
dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.

Based on the translations of hundreds of documents -- some of the
originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults -- Marco has
helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit the
Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were recorded
along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E., 749 C.E., and
1033 C.E. “So roughly,” warns Marco, “we are talking about an interval
of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake
should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed
since the last strong earthquake of 1033.”

Written by monks and clergy, the documents, which span about two
millenia, can help determine the location and impact of future quakes on
several fault planes cutting through Israel and its neighboring
countries, Marco believes. “We use the records, written in churches and
monasteries or by hermits in the desert, to find patterns,” he says.
Marco credits the help of an international team of historians, who have
deciphered the Latin, Greek, and Arabic of the original correspondence.

He continues, “Even if these papers were not ‘officially’ recording
history, they hold a lot of information. ... Some are letters to Europe
asking for funding of church repairs. And while many of these accounts
are told in an archaic religious manner, they help us confirm the dates
and location of major calamities. Following these patterns in the past
can be a good predictor of the future.”

One of the most cited Christian chroniclers in history upon whom Marco
bases some of his conclusions is a ninth-century Byzantine aristocratic
monk named Theophanes, venerated today by Catholics. In one manuscript,
Theophanes wrote, “A great earthquake in Palestine, by the Jordan and in
all of Syria on 18 January in the 4th hour. Numberless multitudes
perished, churches and monasteries collapsed especially in the desert of
the Holy City.”

While Christian sources helped Marco confirm ancient catastrophes and
cast light on future ones, Jewish sources from the Bible also gave him
small pieces of the puzzle. A verse in Zachariah (Ch. 14) describes two
instances of earthquakes, one of which split apart the Mount of Olives,
he says. Muslim clergy have also collected ancient correspondence, which
further broadens the picture.

”Earthquakes are a manifestation of deeper processes inside the earth,”
Marco says. “My questions and analysis examine how often they occur and
whether there is pattern to them, temporally or spatially. I am looking
for patterns and I can say that based on ancient records, the pattern in
Israel around the Dead Sea region is the most disturbing to us.

“When it strikes and it will this quake will affect Amman, Jordan as
well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes don’t care about
religion or political boundaries,” Marco concludes.

Note: This story has been adapted from material provided by Tel Aviv
University.