Sunday May 6, 10:04 AM    

*Russian partnership with the West coming to a Disasterous End*

Russia and the West are at odds over a growing number of issues, from
Kosovo to the US missile shield, and the discord may undermine their
cautiously built post-Cold War partnership, NATO diplomats say.

In an effort to ease bilateral strains, Moscow and Washington have
reached an unusual agreement to have their foreign and defence ministers
meet, particularly to address Russian concerns about the missile shield.

But the differences go far beyond this one, albeit important, problem.

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, a favourite to
replace President Vladimir Putin next year, said Thursday that Moscow
would no longer inform partners when it moves troops across its territory.

The announcement, the application of a freeze Putin made on the
Soviet-era Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, was the first
concrete move in what are tense and possibly changing times.

In the past, the West "accepted the rhetoric when Russian leaders
denounced the United States or NATO, but it's not so easy any more,"
said a diplomat at the military alliance.

At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Norway late last month, German
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, reacting to the Russian treaty
freeze, said it was vital to keep relations between Moscow and
Washington calm.

"We must avoid an escalation," he said.

But a NATO official said "the tone between the (NATO) allies and Russia
has now hardened."

"It seems that we've gone back to times before the NATO-Russia Council,
just as we are getting ready to celebrate its fifth anniversary in
Moscow and Saint Petersburg," he said, in reference to Moscow's regular
talks with NATO.

Indeed problems of political and military nature, which have simmered
almost unnoticed for years, are now bubbling to the surface.

NATO's willingness to continue expanding eastward -- into former Soviet
republics and satellite states -- or the installation of US military
bases in Bulgaria and Romania last year -- are perceived by Russia as
threats.

The Kremlin, whose rhetoric has hardened as elections approach in
December and March, also sees the moves as contrary to commitments made
by the West as the Soviet Union fell apart.

So Washington's announcement in January that it wanted to extend its
defence shield into Europe -- through 10 missile interceptors in Poland
linked to a radar in the Czech Republic -- only threw fat on the fire.

US offers to calm Russia's fears about the system, meant to combat
"rogue states" like Iran, by sharing early warning data and boosting
military cooperation have so far borne little fruit.

"For the moment, Moscow has not responded to the offers of cooperation
that the United States made recently, still obviously hoping to block
the project," a NATO diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

Russia may also go beyond its moratorium on the CFE treaty.

In February, Moscow threatened to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) so that it could resume production of
tactical nuclear missiles.

"Russia seems to want to try to end the relationship that it built up
with the United States in the 1990s and in the most theatrical way
possible," experts at the Paris-based Strategic Research Foundation said
last month.

In this atmosphere of confrontation, some at NATO fear that Kosovo,
where the alliance has some 16,000 troops and whose ethnic Albanian
majority is impatient for independence, could ultimately pay the price.

"A Russian veto on independence for the Serbian province followed by the
US unilaterally recognising Kosovo (as independent) can no longer be
ruled out," a diplomat warned.

Kosovo's leaders are threatening to break away at the end of the month
as Russia threatens to veto "supervised independence" at the US Security
Council, increasing tensions between the Albanians and the minority
Serbs there.