Syria War with Israel within 10 months
Pastor Dale Morgan
Syria War with Israel within 10 months*
Israeli military assessment warns Syria, Hezbollah seeking to attack
Posted: November 6, 2006
News From Israel
JERUSALEM – Syria and Hezbollah are likely to start a war with the
Jewish state within 10 months, according to an assessment presented to
the political leadership here by the Israeli Defense Forces.
IDF leaders did not release the specific timing of what they said are
expected clashes, but they urged Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government
in meetings the past few weeks to allow the IDF to prepare for a
possible major conflict, according to senior military officials.
The officials said the assessments, compiled by the general staff of the
IDF, are based on intelligence information and what they said is the
ongoing estimate by Syria and Hezbollah that military confrontations
achieve results.
They said Hezbollah considered itself victorious against Israeli troops
in Lebanon in July and August.
Explained a military official: "While Hezbollah took some major hits,
the group's rocket infrastructure is still in tact; they are capable of
firing more rockets into Israel. The war ended without Hezbollah having
to return (Eldad) Regev and (Ehud) Goldwasser (the two soldiers it
kidnapped in July, originally prompting the confrontations)."
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, because he was not
authorized to talk to the media, said a cease-fire imposed in August by
the United Nations "achieved a political win for Hezbollah."
"It recognized Hezbollah's claims to the Shebaa Farms (a small piece of
territory held by Israel but claimed by Lebanon and Syria) and called
for future negotiations. It also restricts Israel's ability to stop
Hezbollah from rearming and regrouping, which is what they are currently
doing," the military official said.
Military officials here said the past few weeks Syria and Iran have been
smuggling weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. They said the smuggling is
taking place in front of a contingent of 20,000 international troops
stationed in Lebanon.
"Israeli over-flights have detected the weapons smuggling," said an
Israeli intelligence official. "We've shared the information with the
U.N. and yet nothing is being done about it. Hezbollah is openly
re-establishing itself in south Lebanon," an Israel military
intelligence official said.
In light of the ongoing threats, the IDF said it will take several
measures to prepare for a confrontation with Syria or Hezbollah,
including stepped up training programs and the reworking of specific
battle plans. It asked the Olmert government to approve contracts for
the production of more Israeli tanks and to postpone an earlier decision
to shorten military service terms here for reserve units.
Earlier today, Syria's Foreign Minister, Walid Moallem, said he hopes a
Middle East peace process can be launched next year that would include
Israel's relinquishing of the Golan Heights to Damascus.
"We hope to have in 2007 a peace process to settle the issue," Moualem
said after a meeting with Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere
in Syria.
But Moallem's comments are punctuated by scores of statements by top
officials in Damascus saying Syria is preparing for a war against
Israel. The officials, including Syrian President Bashar Assad, claimed
the Jewish state would attack Syria first.
"We must remain ready at all times. We have begun preparations within
the framework of our options," Assad told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anba
last month. He gave a series of interviews to other media outlets making
the same statements.
Assad said Israel could attack Syria "at any moment" and that Israeli
leaders have abandoned the peace process and are seeking a war.
Yossi Beyditz, head of research for the IDF's intelligence branch, told
the Israeli cabinet two weeks ago the Jewish state has indications Assad
is indeed "preparing his army for a confrontation with Israel."
"Assad has not returned the army to its pre-Lebanon war positions,"
Beyditz said.
Israel, Syria on heightened alert
Israeli officials here claim the IDF alert level in the Golan Heights
has not been raised in response to Assad's recent statements and to the
new Israeli intelligence estimates. They say Israel has maintained the
same heightened state of alert in the Golan Heights that has been in
effect since clashes with Hezbollah broke out July 12.
But a tour of the Golan Heights finds multiple new army positions local
residents and soldiers stationed here say were established within the
past three weeks. More tanks have been patrolling the area, with several
tanks setting up shop in strategic positions, according to soldiers.
Makeshift military outposts have been erected and Golan checkpoints
fortified.
A fence that runs along parts of the Golan-Syrian border also has been
fortified, with a series of surveillance cameras newly installed.
Residents in one border town said that the new cameras were installed
along the border fence two weeks ago.
Syria has noticed the beefed up IDF presence and in response has
heightened its own alertness even more, according to yesterday's edition
of the Qatari newspaper, Al-Watan. The newspaper said Syrian Defense
Minister Hassan Turkmani ordered troops in the area to be on the ready.
Syrian sources said Damascus was closely monitoring IDF activity in the
Golan.
The Golan Heights is strategic mountainous territory captured by the
Jewish state after Syria used the terrain to attack Israel in 1967 and
again in 1973. The Heights looks down on major Syrian and Israeli
population centers.
Military officials here have long maintained returning the Golan Heights
to Syria would grant Damascus the ability to mount an effective ground
invasion of the Jewish state.
'Damascus prepping public for war'
Security officials here said that there have been indications the past
few weeks Syria is seeking to launch a provocation. Besides Assad's
statements, the officials say state-run Syrian media have been
broadcasting regular warlike messages unseen since the 1973 Yom Kippur
War, in which Syria and Egypt launched invasions from the Golan and the
Sinai desert.
"The tone [in Syria] is one of preparing the public for a war," said a
senior security official.
He said any Syrian provocation would likely be coordinated with Iran.
Tehran and Damascus, which both support Hezbollah, have signed several
military pacts.
Reuven Erlich, a Syrian expert and director of the Intelligence and
Terrorism Information Center at Israel's Center for Special Studies,
said that Assad's threats "are to be taken seriously."
"Assad's support for terrorism, for the insurgency in Iraq, for
Hezbollah and his alliance with Iran are all indication of the direction
in which Syria is headed. Assad needs to demonstrate he is willing to
sue for peace, but everything seems to indicate the opposite. Especially
following the war in Lebanon," Erlich said.
Reports: Syria to form own Hezbollah
In July, it was first reported, that Syria is forming its own
Hezbollah-like guerrilla organization to attack Israeli positions in the
Golan Heights, according to a senior Baath party official.
The Baath official said that Syria learned from Hezbollah's military
campaign against Israel that "fighting" is more effective than peace
negotiations with regard to gaining territory.
Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small,
12-square-mile bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The
cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel to end its military campaign in
Lebanon calls for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the
Shebaa Farms.
The official said that Syria's new Front for the Liberation of the Golan
Heights was formed in June and that the group consists of Syrian
volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey and from Palestinian
refugee camps near Damascus. He said Syria held registration for
volunteers to join the Front in June.
One week after the details of the claimed group was published, state-run
Al-Alam Iranian television featured an interview with a man who
identified himself as the leader of the new Front for the Liberation of
the Golan.
The man, whose features were blocked out, said his new group consists of
"hundreds" of fighters who are training for guerrilla-like raids against
Israeli positions in and near the Golan. He claimed the Front has opened
several training camps inside Syria.
Last month, Amos Yadlin, head of the IDF's intelligence branch, told the
Knesset Syria is in the early stages of forming a Hezbollah-like group.