Cost of water shortage: civil unrest, mass migration and economic collapse
Pastor Dale Morgan
Cost of water shortage: civil unrest, mass migration and economic collapse*
Analysts see widespread conflicts by 2015 but pin hopes on technology
and better management
John Vidal, environment editor
Thursday August 17, 2006
The Guardian
A woman carries buckets to collect water near Tahoua, northen Niger
A woman carries buckets to collect water near Tahoua, northen Niger.
Photograph: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty
Cholera may return to London, the mass migration of Africans could cause
civil unrest in Europe and China's economy could crash by 2015 as the
supply of fresh water becomes critical to the global economy. That was
the bleak assessment yesterday by forecasters from some of the world's
leading corporate users of fresh water, 200 of the largest food, oil,
water and chemical companies.
Analysts working for Shell, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Cargill and
other companies which depend heavily on secure water supplies, yesterday
suggested the next 20 years would be critical as countries became
richer, making heavier demands on scarce water supplies.
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In three future scenarios, the businesses foresee growing civil unrest,
boom and bust economic cycles in Asia and mass migrations to Europe. But
they also say scarcity will encourage the development of new
water-saving technologies and better management of water by business.
The study of future water availability, which the corporations have
taken three years to compile, suggests water conflicts are likely to
become common in many countries, according to the World Business Council
on Sustainable Development, which brought the industrial groups together.
Lloyd Timberlake, spokesman for the council, said: "The growing demand
for water in China can potentially lead to over-exploitation and a
decline in availability for domestic, agricultural, industry and energy
production use. This inevitably leads to loss of production, both
industrial and agricultural, and can also affect public health - all of
which in turn will ultimately lead to an economic downturn. The question
is how can business address these challenges and still make a profit."
The corporations were yesterday joined by the conservation group WWF and
the International Water Management Institute, the world's leading body
on fresh water management, which said water scarcity was increasing
faster than expected. In China, authorities had begun trucking in water
to millions of people after wells and rivers ran dry in the east of the
country.
"Globally, water usage has increased by six times in the past 100 years
and will double again by 2050, driven mainly by irrigation and demands
of agriculture. Some countries have already run out of water to produce
their own food. Without improvements ... the consequences will be even
more widespread water scarcity and rapidly increasing water prices,"
said Frank Rijsberman, director of the institute.
The institute, funded by government research organisations, will report
next week that a third of the world's population, more than 2 billion
people, is living in places where water is overused - leading to falling
underground water levels and drying rivers - or cannot be accessed.
Mr Rijsberman said rising living standards in India and China could lead
to increased demand for better food, which would in turn need more water
to produce. He expected the price of water to increase everywhere to
meet an expected 50% increase in the amount of food the world will need
in the next 20 years.
According to the institute's assessment, Egypt imports more than half of
its food because it does not have enough water to grow it domestically
and Australia is faced with water scarcity in the Murray-Darling Basin
as a result of diverting large quantities of water for use in
agriculture. The Aral Sea in central Asia is another example of massive
diversion of water for agriculture in the Soviet era causing widespread
water scarcity, and one of the world's worst environmental disasters.
Researchers say it is possible to reduce water scarcity, feed people and
address poverty, but the key trade-off is with the environment. "People
and their governments will face some tough decisions on how to allocate
and manage water," says the institute's report.
In a further paper, WWF said yesterday that water crises, long seen as a
problem of only the poorest, are affecting the wealthiest nations. "In
Europe, countries along the Atlantic are suffering recurring droughts,
while water-intensive tourism and irrigated agriculture are endangering
water resources in the Mediterranean. In Australia, salinity is a major
threat to a large proportion of its key agricultural areas", said Jamie
Pittock, director of WWF's freshwater programme.
In the United States, Mr Pittock said, large areas are already using
substantially more water than can be naturally replenished. "This
situation will only be exacerbated as climate change is predicted to
bring lower rainfall, increased evaporation and changed patterns of snow
melting."
Three visions of the future
1. Misery and shortages in the megacities and drought in Africa
By 2010, 22 megacities with populations larger than 10 million face
major water and sewerage problems. The situation is gravest in China,
where 550 of the country's 600 largest cities are running short. Growing
demand for water by industry leads to serious over-exploitaion with less
and less water available for consumers and farmers. This leads to a fall
in Chinese food production, which in turn leads to more imports and
impacts on other countries. Friction and unrest grow worldwide as the
middle classes struggle to pay bills. Businesses are exposed to charges
of moral culpability and litigation over water use. Waves of immigrants
flood in to Europe from increasingly drought-torn Africa
2. China leads recycling rush as world moves to a new hydro economy
By 2010, the water shortage in many developing countries is recognised
as one of the most serious political and social issues of the time. Lack
of water is stopping development and in many countries the rural poor
suffer as their water and other needs take second place to those of
swelling cities and industry. Local government worldwide is increasingly
distrusted over water allocation, and historical divides between rich
and poor are exacerbated by water shortages. However, by 2025 a
worldwide hydro economy is developing, led by China. Vast new
investments are made in recycling water and the cost of desalination is
greatly reduced. Innovative small-scale water treatment processes become
the norm
3. Water is the means of social control as floods and disease devastate
world
Water becomes a key symbol of protest around the world and is seen as
the most serious social and political issue of the generation. By 2015,
multinational companies are accused regularly of taking too much water
in developing countries, cholera breaks out in London, and governments
start to use water as a form of social control, subsidising some sectors
and rationing it to others. Great floods follow each other in quick
succession. Deforestation leads to massive mudslides in Asia and
increasing flooding affects Europe, damaging industry. A second New
Orleans flood destroys the city again. Global focus grows on the
"export" of water via crops such as wheat or fruit