Intense tropical cyclone Jaya*

01 Apr 2007 22:03:00 GMT
Source: Tropical Storm Risk
Mark Saunders

Intense tropical cyclone Jaya is forecast to strike Madagascar as a
tropical cyclone at about 06:00 GMT on 3 April. Data supplied by the US
Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point
of landfall will be near 15.8 S, 50.7 E. Jaya is expected to bring
1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97
mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property
damage and flooding from a storm of Jaya's strength (category 2) at
landfall includes:

    * Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
    * Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
    * Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
    * Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and
piers.
    * Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival
of the storm center.
    * Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be
used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property.
Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or
property should contact their official national weather agency or
warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored
by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University
College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.