New flu strain 'could kill 650,000'
Pastor Dale Morgan
New flu strain 'could kill 650,000'*
By Juliet Turner and agencies
Last Updated: 2:47pm BST 30/08/2007
Up to 650,000 people could die in England and Wales in the event of a
flu pandemic, an official report warns.
The Home Office document outlines plans for dealing with an outbreak,
including the possibility of mass burials and storing dead bodies in
refrigerated trailers.
Processes for dealing with mass casualties were likely to be overwhelmed
at the height of a pandemic, with up to 22pc extra deaths at its height,
the paper said.
The risk of a human influenza pandemic is different from seasonal flu,
which affects the population every winter and plans would only apply if
a new strain of "ordinary" flu emerged, or if avian flu became easily
transmitted from birds to humans.
Officials projected between 48,000 and 650,000 deaths depending on a
"base" case scenario and a "worst" case scenario.
Even the prudent projections involved 320,000 mortalities from a human
flu pandemic.
"Cemetery managers are likely to want to move to provision of common
graves, which would allow interments to be undertaken more quickly,"
said the paper.
It may be necessary to restrict families' choice over the burial of a
relative even if funeral services increase their working hours and move
to a seven days a week operation, the consultation paper said.
Coffin manufacturers may also have to limit choice and sizes of coffins
to meet demand.
NHS trusts and local authorities would draw up plans for extra
mortuaries, using tent-like structures, standard refrigerated containers
or other temporary buildings.
The paper raised the prospect of granting nurses the power to sign death
certificates, as well as retired doctors.
Registrars may also have to appoint new staff to act as deputies to deal
with large numbers of death registrations, it added.
The document, Planning For A Possible Influenza Epidemic, is intended to
help a range of agencies improve their preparations for an outbreak, and
is open for consultation until the end of November.
A separate Department of Health report published in March predicted up
to 750,000 deaths across the UK in a flu pandemic.
Pandemic flu last occurred in 1968/69, when so-called Hong Kong flu
killed an estimated one million worldwide, 30,000 of those in the UK.