Major Arctic sea ice melt this summer
Pastor Dale Morgan
Major Arctic sea ice melt this summer*
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID,
AP Science Writer
WASHINGTON - The Arctic will remain on thinning ice, and climate warming
is expected to begin affecting the Antarctic also, scientists said Friday.
"The long-term prognosis is not very optimistic," atmospheric scientist
Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University said at a briefing.
Last summer sea ice in the North shrank to a record low, a change many
attribute to global warming.
But while solar radiation and amounts of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere are similar at the poles, to date the regions have responded
differently, with little change in the South, explained oceanographer
James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
What researchers have concluded was happening, was that in the North,
global warming and natural variability of climate were reinforcing one
another, sending the Arctic into a new state with much less sea ice than
in the past.
"And there is very little chance for the climate to return to the
conditions of 20 years ago," he added.
On the other hand, Overland explained, the ozone hole in the Antarctic
masked conditions there, keeping temperatures low in most of the
continent other than the peninsula reaching toward South America.
"So there is a scientific reason for why we're not seeing large changes
in the Antarctic like we're seeing in the Arctic," he said.
But, Overland added, as the ozone hole recovers in coming years, global
warming will begin to affect the South Pole also.
The briefing covered data being reported in a paper scheduled for
publication next week in Eos, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
Overland said he used to be among those skeptical about the effects of
global climate change. The new findings, which he termed "startling,"
were developed at a recent workshop, he said.
There is agreement between weather observations, the output of computer
climate models and scientific expectations for what should happen, added
Francis.
All the evidence points toward human-made changes at both poles, she
said, a conclusion that "further depletes the arsenals of those who
insist that human-caused climate change is nothing to worry about."
Climatologist Gareth Marshall of the British Antarctic Survey said that
while the term global warming is widely used, things are more
complicated at the regional level.
In the Antarctic, he explained, climate change strengthened winds
blowing around the continent, helping trap colder air. But that will
decrease in the future, allowing warmer conditions to begin, he said.
And, Marshall added, all studies now show that human activities are the
drivers of climate change in the Antarctic.
Asked if this summer will match last year's record low sea ice in the
North, Overland that is likely.
"The tea leaves point to a minimal amount of sea ice next September,
that would be the same as we had last summer, 40 percent loss compared
to 20 years ago," he said. Overland added that the winter freeze got a
late start last fall.
Francis added: "Over this entire fall, winter and right up 'till today
the ice concentration, the amount of ice that's floating around on the
Arctic, has been below normal every single day."
"All arrows are pointing towards, certainly not a recovery, something
like we had last summer and possibly worse," she said.
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On the Net:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.noaa.gov
American Geophysical Union: http://www.agu.org