Sunspot Abundance Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa*

365,000 people hit by Sudan floods: UN

Khartoum (AFP) Aug 6 - Some 365,000 people have been hit by a month of
flooding in Sudan, and the situation will only worsen as the rains
continue, the United Nations humanitarian relief agency said on Monday.
"Well over 30,000 houses were fully destroyed. At least 365,000 people
have already been directly affected, including a reported 64 dead and
335 injured," the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) said in a statement. The UN's death toll is lower than
one issued last month by the Sudanese government, which said that around
100 people had been killed in the floods as of July 18. Up to half a
million people have received assistance from the UN and its partners in
support of the Sudanese government, but more could be hit if the
flooding continues, OCHA said. "Although the floods came earlier than
expected, the response has been swift and successful. We had contingency
measures in place, and were able to prevent further distress to the
population," said David Gressly, the acting UN resident and humanitarian
coordinator in Sudan. However, "if current flooding patterns continue
unabated, the situation will deteriorate considerably," he warned. OCHA
said it expects the rains to continue until at least mid-September.
Around half a million people have received water purification products
in a bid to stem the risk of water-borne diseases, although at least 39
people are already known to have died in the east of the country from
acute watery diarrhoea, it said. Meanwhile, 200,000 people have received
essential non-food items such as blankets, plastic sheeting to serve as
shelter, jerry cans, cooking sets and sleeping mats, the agency said.
"We are working closely with the government to reach accurate estimates
of the needs of those affected, and of the funding requirements," said
John Clarke, the UN official in charge of coordinating the response to
the floods. (Please note - this current flood is note related to
accompanying science report on rain and sunspots)

by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Aug 07, 2007

A new study reveals correlations between plentiful sunspots and periods
of heavy rain in East Africa. Intense rainfall in the region often leads
to flooding and disease outbreaks. The analysis by a team of U.S. and
British researchers shows that unusually heavy rainfalls in East Africa
over the past century preceded peak sunspot activity by about one year.
Because periods of peak sunspot activity, known as solar maxima, are
predictable, so too are the associated heavy rains that precede them,
the researchers propose.

"With the help of these findings, we can now say when especially rainy
seasons are likely to occur, several years in advance," says
paleoclimatologist and study leader Curt Stager of Paul Smith's College
in Paul Smiths, New York. Forewarned by such predictions, public health
officials could ramp up prevention measures against insect-borne
diseases long before epidemics begin, he adds.

The sunspot-rainfall analysis is scheduled to appear on 7 August in the
Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, a publication of the
American Geophysical Union.

Increasing sunspot numbers indicate a rise in the sun's energy output.
Sunspot abundance peaks on an 11-year cycle. The next peak is expected
in 2011-2012. If the newfound pattern holds, rainfall would also peak
the year before.

"We expect East Africa to experience a major intensification of rainy
season precipitation, along with widespread Rift Valley Fever epidemics,
a year or so before the solar maximum of 2011-2012," the team reports.
Because mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects thrive in wet
conditions, heavy rains may herald outbreaks of diseases such as Rift
Valley Fever.

The new analysis relies on rainfall data going back a century. The
scientists also used historical records of water levels at lakes
Victoria, Tanganyika, and Naivasha.

The work counters previous research that found no connection between
sunspot cycles and rainfall in East Africa. Stager's team concludes
that, although the link between sunspots and rainfall was weak between
1927 and 1968, the cyclic pattern held true throughout the 20th century.
Previous statistical analysis discounted the link for a variety of
reasons, including the influence of El Nino and other climatic
disturbances not associated with sunspots.

Scientists have investigated apparent correlations between solar
variability and Lake Victoria's water levels since the beginning of the
last century, says co-author Alexander Ruzmaikin of NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The new research "shows
that these correlations are, in fact, not accidental, effectively
resolving a longstanding historical puzzle and improving our knowledge
of how solar variability affects Africa's climate," he adds.

Stager, Ruzmaikin and their colleagues offer several reasons why sunspot
peaks may affect rainfall. In a simple scenario, increased solar energy
associated with sunspots heats both land and sea, forcing moist air to
rise and triggering precipitation.

While sunspot peaks augur extraordinarily wet rainy seasons, heavy rains
are possible at other times as well, Stager acknowledges. But, most of
the rainiest times, he says, are consistently coupled with the
predictable rhythms of sunspot peaks. And, to be forewarned is to be
forearmed.

"The hope is that people on the ground will use this research to predict
heavy rainfall events," Stager says. "Those events lead to erosion,
flooding, and disease."