China Space Weapons Test Shakes Up World View
Pastor Dale Morgan
China Space Weapons Test Shakes Up World View*
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN
The Associated Press
Tuesday, January 23, 2007; 2:52 PM
SHANGHAI, China -- China has sent men into orbit and launched dozens of
satellites, but its test of a satellite-killing weapon is shaking up
perceptions about where the Chinese space program is headed.
The test, confirmed by Beijing on Tuesday after nearly a two-week
silence, has drawn criticism from the U.S. and Japan, and touched off
fears of an arms race in space.
The Chinese test "was an overtly military, very provocative event that
cannot be spun any other way," said Rob Hewson, the London-based editor
of Jane's Air-Launched Weapons. "So a bald assessment of that is that
it's a big fat challenge."
The test is a shot across the bow of U.S. efforts to remain predominant
in space and on the ground, where its military is heavily dependent on
networks of satellites, particularly the low-altitude imaging
intelligence models that help it find and hit targets. Japan, also seen
as a regional rival, is similarly vulnerable, while any potential
conflicts in space would put much of the industrialized world's
economies at risk, given that satellites are used to relay phone calls
and data and to map weather systems.
The Jan. 11 test, first reported last week by the magazine Aviation
Week, destroyed a defunct Chinese weather satellite by hitting it with a
warhead launched on board a ballistic missile. That made China only the
third country after Russia and the U.S. to shoot down anything in space.
Before that, China's military and its space program were largely seen as
capable, but lagging in innovation. Still, its unclear what message
China intended to send, underscoring the opacity of China's space and
military programs and deepening suspicion over its avowed commitment to
the purely peaceful use of space.
Beijing has repeatedly pledged peaceful development of its army _ the
world's largest _ but has caused unease among its neighbors by
announcing double-digit military spending increases nearly every year
since the early 1990s.
The anti-satellite test threatens to "undermine relationships and fuel
military tensions between space-faring nations," David Wright, of the
Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a statement
posted on the group's Web site that was typical of criticisms from the
U.S. scientific community.
On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry said it acknowledged holding the test
to the U.S., Japan and other countries, but insisted it opposed any arms
race in space. Both Washington and Tokyo have criticized the test as
undermining efforts to keep weapons out of space.
In Washington, the Defense Department and President Bush's National
Security Council declined to comment Tuesday.
However, while China's act looked aggressive, some U.S. officials were
skeptical that Beijing would do anything to attack the satellites of the
United States or Japan _ key trading partners. According to the CIA
World Fact Book, China sold more to the United States in 2005 than any
other nation _ 21.4 percent of its exports. Hong Kong was second, with
16.3 percent, and Japan was third with 11 percent.
China has released no details publicly, although Aviation Week said the
missile lifted off from or near the Xichang base in southwest China, the
country's main commercial satellite launch center. The military's
missile corps, the 2nd Artillery, likely took part in the launch as well.
Knocking out U.S. military satellites would be a priority in any
regional war against the U.S. or Japan, either over Taiwan or other
territorial claims, or to keep its sea lanes open for deliveries of oil
and gas.
One immediate casualty of the test could be budding ties between the
Chinese and the U.S. and European space programs, experts said. NASA's
chief administrator Michael Griffin visited China last year to discuss
cooperation projects, and China has partnered with the European Space
Agency on the Galileo navigation satellite network to compete with the
U.S. Global Positioning System.
Now the test "will make it very difficult for the U.S. to talk about
space cooperation with China any time soon," said John Pike, director of
GlobalSecurity.org, a defense, security and space intelligence
consultancy based in Alexandria, Va.
Some say China isn't the only one rushing to acquire military
capabilities in space.
President Bush signed an order in October tacitly asserting the U.S.
right to space weapons and opposing the development of treaties or other
measures restricting them _ a move some analysts speculated may have
helped spur the Chinese test.
Bush has also pushed an ambitious program of space-based missile defense
and the Pentagon is working on missiles, ground lasers and other
technology to shoot down satellites.
However, the Pentagon's budget is severely constrained by Iraq and
Afghanistan and a drive to replace outdated planes and ships, making
space programs a lower priority and prompting some to warn the U.S.
could be losing ground in space.
"We are falling behind, if not losing, on many measures of space
superiority," Defense Department contractor Stephen Hill said Monday at
a forum in Washington.
China's promotion of anti-satellite weapons is underpinned by its
doctrine of "asymmetric warfare" that envisions defeating the U.S. or
another powerful foe by knocking away key capabilities rather than
through frontal assault.
Anti-satellite weapons development has likely benefited from the
increasing attention garnered by China's space program, which entered a
new era with its first manned space flight in 2003.
A second mission in 2005 put two astronauts, or "yuhangyuan," into orbit
for a week and a third manned launch is planned for next year. This
year, China plans to put into space a lunar probe which will orbit the
moon at an altitude of 125 miles.
Despite the successes, China's space program had been seen as lacking in
innovation, overly cautious and, perhaps most importantly,
non-threatening to Washington. That evaluation may now have to change.
"You could argue that China is getting ready to do a lot of things that
the U.S. is now losing the ability to do," Hewson said. "So that in
itself is a challenge to the U.S."