U.S. plans envision "broad attack" on Iran
Pastor Dale Morgan
Saturday January 20, 8:52 AM Reuters
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U.S. plans envision "broad attack" on Iran*
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. contingency planning for military action
against Iran's nuclear program goes beyond limited strikes and would
effectively unleash a war against the country, a former U.S.
intelligence analyst said on Friday.
"I've seen some of the planning ... You're not talking about a surgical
strike," said Wayne White, who was a top Middle East analyst for the
State Department's bureau of intelligence and research until March 2005.
"You're talking about a war against Iran" that likely would destabilise
the Middle East for years, White told the Middle East Policy Council, a
Washington think tank.
"We're not talking about just surgical strikes against an array of
targets inside Iran. We're talking about clearing a path to the targets"
by taking out much of the Iranian Air Force, Kilo submarines, anti-ship
missiles that could target commerce or U.S. warships in the Gulf, and
maybe even Iran's ballistic missile capability, White said.
"I'm much more worried about the consequences of a U.S. or Israeli
attack against Iran's nuclear infrastructure," which would prompt
vigorous Iranian retaliation, he said, than civil war in Iraq, which
could be confined to that country.
President George W. Bush has stressed he is seeking a diplomatic
solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program.
But he has not taken the military option off the table and his recent
rhetoric, plus tougher financial sanctions and actions against Iranian
involvement in Iraq, has revived talk in Washington about a possible
U.S. attack on Iran.
The Bush administration and many of its Gulf allies have expressed
growing concern about Iran's rising influence in the region and the
prospect of it acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Middle East expert Kenneth Katzman argued "Iran's ascendancy is not only
manageable but reversible" if one understands the Islamic republic's
many vulnerabilities.
Tehran's leaders have convinced many experts Iran is a great nation
verging on "superpower" status, but the country is "very weak ... (and)
meets almost no known criteria to be considered a great nation," said
Katzman of the Library of Congress' Congressional Research Service.
The economy is mismanaged and "quite primitive," exporting almost
nothing except oil, he said.
Also, Iran's oil production capacity is fast declining and in terms of
conventional military power, "Iran is a virtual non-entity," Katzman added.
The administration, therefore, should not go out of its way to
accommodate Iran because the country is in no position to hurt the
United States, and at some point "it might be useful to call that
bluff," he said.
But Katzman cautioned against early confrontation with Iran and said if
there is a "grand bargain" that meets both countries' interests, that
should be pursued.