FACTBOX-Global warming: impacts of temperature increases
Pastor Dale Morgan
*FACTBOX-Global warming: impacts of temperature increases*
25 Jan 2007 18:13:22 GMT
Source: Reuters
Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
will publish a report, the most complete overview of climate change
science, in Paris on Feb. 2. It will guide policy makers combating
global warming.
A draft of the report projects temperatures rising by 2 to 4.5 Celsius
(3.6 to 8.1 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a
"best estimate" of a 3C (5.4 F) rise.
Below are some estimates of the global implications of different
temperature rises relative to pre-industrial levels, as detailed in a
report on climate change by Nicholas Stern, chief British government
economist, published in October. Temp. rise/ Impacts 1 DEGREE
* Shrinking glaciers threaten water for 50 million people
* Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions
* At least 300,000 people each year die from malaria, malnutrition and
other climate-related diseases
* Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes
* 80 percent bleaching of coral reefs, e.g. Great Barrier Reef
2 DEGREES
* 5 - 10 percent decline in crop yield in tropical Africa
* 40 - 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa
* Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding
* 15 - 40 percent of species face extinction (one estimate)
* High risk of extinction of Arctic species, e.g. polar bear
* Potential for Greenland ice sheet to start to melt irreversibly,
committing world to 7 metre sea level rise
3 DEGREES
* In Southern Europe, serious droughts once every 10 years
* 1 - 4 billion more people suffer water shortages
* Some 150 - 550 additional millions at risk of hunger
* 1 - 3 million more people die from malnutrition
* Onset of Amazon forest collapse (some models only)
* Rising risk of collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
* Rising risk of collapse of Atlantic Conveyor of warm water
* Rising risk of abrupt changes to the monsoon 4 DEGREES
* Agricultural yields decline by 15 - 35 percent in Africa
* Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa
* Loss of around half Arctic tundra
5 DEGREES
* Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas, affecting
one-quarter of China's population, many in India
* Continued increase in ocean acidity seriously disrupting marine
ecosystems and possibly fish stocks
* Sea level rise threatens small islands, coastal areas such as Florida
and major cities such as New York, London, and Tokyo