New generation of Nuke Submarines to be finished soon in Russia
Pastor Dale Morgan
New generation of Nuke Submarines to be finished soon in Russia*
28.03.2007
According to shipbuilding.ru, a joint project of the Agency of
Informational Resources and the Krylov Research Institute, on April, 15
Sevmash Shipyard will take out of the slipway the new generation
strategic submarine Yuri Dolgoruky. Two more subs of the same 955
project Borei are at different stages of construction. The new subs will
carry a new generation intercontinental missile Bulava (mace). According
to the Russian designers it will take the foreign competitors 10-15
years to make something similar with close characteristics. It is true
that the process of creating this missile is experiencing certain
difficulties, which is willingly quoted by the foreign observers.
However, even with all failures the no-match weapon is likely to be
created in no-match short terms.
The last (third) test of Bulava held on December, 24 was not fulfilled
completely. The missile burst over the Sea of Okhotsk within a
reasonably short distance before the target. According to the official
sources a technical malfunction occurred in the 3rd stage engine and
this is why the missile could not follow trajectory, whereby it should
have flown up to the test filed Kura in Kamchatka peninsula. The first
and second stages of Bulava "worked perfectly", but there were "certain
drawbacks" in the third stage.
The missile started from the test submarine Dmitry Donskoj, which was in
a surface position in the White Sea. On October, 25 Bulava was launched
from the same sub in a submarine position. The missile flew about 200
seconds and started to change the trajectory, after which the alarm
system commanded self-destruction. At that time the reaction of the
Russian official institutions was surprisingly calm. There were even
unofficial phrases that the launch is regarded as successful. The first
out of three failures took place on Sept, 7. All above gave enough
ground for the ill-wishers to speak about certain regularity: in two
launchings from a submarine position (on September, 7th and on October,
25th, 2006) the rocket fell in the first minutes of the flight, whereas
in two other from a surface position (on September, 27th 2005 and on
December, 24th, 2006) the problems occurred in the third stage.
It turns out that journalists and specialists view the same point
differently. According to the lower rank engineers (probably the most
unbiased source) such failures may not be regarded as a mistake of the
subs’ crew or a serious failure of the machinery. This is a standard
test work and certain deviations may be even forecasted. According to
one of the former senior officers of the Central Military-Naval Test
Filed near Severodvnsk while the individual units of a complex are
adjusted to one another such events can be regarded as “working
procedure”. The average historical number of failures of this level
according to the statistics is vividly lower in Russia (USSR) than in
the USA. The malfunctions of Bulava did not reach “a level of concern”
at all. Maximum what the skeptics can state at the moment is that the
designers failed with the claimed “stainless” tests.
It is out of the question to expect any changes of the attitude on the
official level. Topol (successfully implemented ground based version of
the missile) and Bulava programs will not be reconsidered. It goes
without saying. For example, the head of the Russian Space Agency
Anatoly Perminov considers that "nothing terrible took place", as it was
only the fifth test of Bulava and with each launch of the missile its
characteristic improve. Besides, to commission a missile complex,
according to Mr. Perminov, 12-14 start-up tests are required on average.
The reason for such a hurry with the development of the new missile is
that the designers try to save the costs of commissioning the missile.
According to the head of the Moscow Institute of Teplotechnika (MIT)
Yuri Solomonov the unification of the ground based missiles gave the
economization of about 30%, the unification with the naval missiles will
further cut costs. In this case the designers have full understanding
from the government and the military-industrial commission. They agreed
that Bulava must be made at the same plants as Topol-M (Votkinsky
Plant). When the manufacturer got the first orders for test Bulavas in
2004-2005 its costs immediately went down.
According to the different open sources the new hard fueled Bulava is
11,5m long (without warhead, with – 12.1m), its maximum diameter is 2m,
launching weight - 36,8t. The length of the container is 12.1m, diameter
- 2,1m. The first 3.8m long stage weighs 18.6t. The information on the
second and third stages has not been released. All stages have the
diameter of 3m. The payload is 1150kg, the declared number of warheads –
6, which have the accuracy of 350m. According to other sources there are
10 warheads and the range is at least 8000km. It is certain that the
missile has the hypersonic maneuvering warheads capable of changing the
trajectory vertically and horizontally, which can penetrate any existing
and perspective strategic defense system.
The experts called this new trajectory “quasi-ballistic”. According to
the general-colonel Nikolay Solovtsov, the commander of the Russian
Strategic Missile Forces, creation of the rockets with changeable
trajectory and hypersonic speed is a matter of the next couple of years,
not a long-term future. But even today Russian missiles now on duty can
hit any target anywhere in the world. The factor of technical readiness
of these weapons is 0,97-0,98. It means that out of each hundred 97-98
missiles can immediately and successfully fulfill a mission. As an
example the commander referred to the last year's exercise, when the
missile "Topol" confirmed combat efficiency after a 90-kilometer raid.
However, Russian designer improve not only the strike power.
In 2006 t he Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences held the
meeting dedicated to the report “How to pass through the Anti Missile
Defense”. The speakers arrived at the conclusion that it is technically
possible to guarantee the penetration through the strategic missile
defense. The main report was presented by the designer of the Topol and
Bulava Yuri Solomonov. He pointed out the changing policy of the
development of the strategic forces. In the cold war era 40% of the
strike efficiency accounted for the informational support, 60% for the
strike power. Today the 40:60 ratio is counted vise versa and the trend
continues.
This is way the designers try to hide the launchings and increase the
survivability of the missiles along the whole route. The reason why
Russia invests in the ground mobile Topols and naval Bulavas is because
the US plans to start from 2009 the systems of space monitoring of
earth. Mobile complexes could guarantee 80% launchings. According to
Yuri Solomonov the tests demonstrated that Topols’ launchings remained
unnoticed. Also the new on-board equipment of Topols is highly resistant
to the interception means, including nuclear and laser. Today having
shorted the take off stage, the designers are working on reducing the
visibility of the missile at the stage of splitting the warheads and
making it more difficult to tell the false warheads from the real ones.
According to Mr. Solomonov the unified missiles Topol-M and Bulava shall
be the core of the Russian nuclear deterrence till 2040-2045 and keeping
in mind the modernization potential probably till 2050-2060. Yuri
Solomonov publicly wanted to forecast that the nearest foreign matches
will appear in 15-20 years.
Yuri Seleznyov
Pravda.ru