Military presence boosted as Assad warns of looming conflict over Golan

Posted: October 27, 2006
News From Israel

GOLAN HEIGHTS – Israel has visibly beefed up its military presence here
in the Golan Heights while neighboring Syria reportedly has placed its
army on high alert and has warned it is preparing for a possible war
with the Jewish state.

The Israeli Defense Forces yesterday carried out the second in a series
of scheduled military exercises in the Golan.

IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz earlier this week made a surprise visit to
the mountainous territory, which the army here said was intended to test
the operational readiness and capabilities of local divisions.

Since the end of Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon in August,
Syrian President Bashar Assad has given a series of interviews in which
he warned of possible confrontations with Israel. He has stated several
times he views Hezbollah's "victory" over Israel as proof military
tactics bring results.

In recent weeks, Assad said the Syrian army was preparing for war,
claiming he was worried Israel would attack his country first.

"We must remain ready at all times. We have begun preparations within
the framework of our options," Assad told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anba.

He said Israel could attack Syria "at any moment" and that Israeli
leaders have abandoned the peace process and are seeking a war.

Yossi Beyditz, head of research for the IDF's intelligence branch, told
the Israeli cabinet last week the Jewish state has indications Assad is
"preparing his army for a confrontation with Israel."

"Assad has not returned the army to its pre-Lebanon war positions,"
Beyditz said.

Israeli officials here claim the IDF alert level in the Golan Heights
has not been raised in response to Assad's recent statements and to the
new Israeli intelligence estimates. They say Israel has maintained the
same heightened state of alert in the Golan Heights that has been in
effect since clashes with Hezbollah broke out July 12.

But a tour of the Golan Heights finds multiple new army positions local
residents and soldiers stationed here say were established within the
past three weeks. More tanks have been patrolling the area, with several
tanks setting up shop in strategic positions, according to soldiers.
Makeshift military outposts have been erected and Golan checkpoints
fortified.

A fence that runs along parts of the Golan-Syrian border also has been
fortified, with a series of surveillance cameras newly installed.
Residents in one border town said that the new cameras were installed
along the border fence two weeks ago.

Syria has noticed the beefed up IDF presence and in response has
heightened its own alertness even more, according to yesterday's edition
of the Qatari newspaper, Al-Watan. The newspaper said Syrian Defense
Minister Hassan Turkmani ordered troops in the area to be on the ready.
Syrian sources said Damascus was closely monitoring IDF activity in the
Golan.

The Golan Heights is strategic mountainous territory captured by the
Jewish state after Syria used the terrain to attack Israel in 1967 and
again in 1973. The Heights looks down on major Syrian and Israeli
population centers.

Military officials here have long maintained returning the Golan Heights
to Syria would grant Damascus the ability to mount an effective ground
invasion of the Jewish state.

'Damascus prepping public for war'

Security officials here said that there have been indications the past
few weeks Syria is seeking to launch a provocation. Besides Assad's
statements, the officials say state-run Syrian media have been
broadcasting regular warlike messages unseen since the 1973 Yom Kippur
War, in which Syria and Egypt launched invasions from the Golan and the
Sinai desert.

"The tone [in Syria] is one of preparing the public for a war," said a
senior security official.

He said any Syrian provocation would likely be coordinated with Iran.
Tehran and Damascus, which both support Hezbollah, have signed several
military pacts.

Reuven Erlich, a Syrian expert and director of the Intelligence and
Terrorism Information Center at Israel's Center for Special Studies,
tsaid that Assad's threats "are to be taken seriously."

"Assad's support for terrorism, for the insurgency in Iraq, for
Hezbollah and his alliance with Iran are all indication of the direction
in which Syria is headed. Assad needs to demonstrate he is willing to
sue for peace, but everything seems to indicate the opposite. Especially
following the war in Lebanon," Erlich said.

Reports: Syria to form own Hezbollah

In July, it was first reported Syria is forming its own Hezbollah-like
guerrilla organization to attack Israeli positions in the Golan Heights,
according to a senior Baath party official.

The Baath official said that Syria learned from Hezbollah's military
campaign against Israel that "fighting" is more effective than peace
negotiations with regard to gaining territory.

Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small,
12-square-mile bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The
cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel to end its military campaign in
Lebanon calls for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the
Shebaa Farms.

The official said that Syria's new Front for the Liberation of the Golan
Heights was formed in June and that the group consists of Syrian
volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey and from Palestinian
refugee camps near Damascus. He said Syria held registration for
volunteers to join the Front in June.

One week after the details of the claimed group was published, state-run
Al-Alam Iranian television featured an interview with a man who
identified himself as the leader of the new Front for the Liberation of
the Golan.

The man, whose features were blocked out, said his new group consists of
"hundreds" of fighters who are training for guerrilla-like raids against
Israeli positions in and near the Golan. He claimed the Front has opened
several training camps inside Syria.

Last month, Amos Yadlin, head of the IDF's intelligence branch, told the
Knesset Syria is in the early stages of forming a Hezbollah-like group.