Huge U.S. economic losses forecast in flu pandemic
Pastor Dale Morgan
Huge U.S. economic losses forecast in flu pandemic*
22 Mar 2007 17:19:35 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Will Dunham
WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - An influenza pandemic on the scale of
the 1918 "Spanish Flu" would inflict $700 billion in economic losses in
the United States and a 5.5 percent GDP drop in a year, according to a
report released on Thursday.
Such a pandemic could trigger the second-deepest U.S. economic recession
since World War Two, the report from the advocacy group Trust for
America's Health found.
The group examined the potential economic consequences facing the United
States in a pandemic that might occur if, for example, the H5N1 avian
influenza virus that has killed 169 people globally mutates to become
more readily spread among people.
States heavily dependent on tourism like Nevada, home to the gambling
city of Las Vegas, and Hawaii, home to exquisite beaches, could be
hardest hit, but every state would suffer economic losses of at least 5
percent, the report found.
The U.S. gross domestic product would fall 5.5 percent, or $683 billion,
over a year if no vaccine was available.
"Our country is not prepared to face an economic shock of this
magnitude," Jeffrey Levi, the group's executive director, told reporters.
Levi said leaders across the country should do more to prepare. Flu
pandemics occur three or four times per century and the last one was in
1968.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus, which has infected 281 people and killed
169 of them since it started a rapid spread in 2003, is considered the
most likely candidate to cause a pandemic if it evolves the ability to
infect people easily.
The World Bank said in November a pandemic could cost the global economy
$800 billion over a year.
Misha Segal, lead author of Thursday's report, said the group used as a
model the 1918 flu pandemic that unfolded in the closing stages of World
War One, killing tens of millions of people. The model assumed 2.2
million Americans dying and nearly 90 million becoming ill.
TROUBLE FOR SOME INDUSTRIES
Such a pandemic could hit some economic sectors harder than others, the
report said. Tourism, entertainment and food services faced an 80
percent decline, while the agriculture, construction, retail trade,
finance and insurance industries would suffer a 10 percent loss in demand.
Nevada's economy would sustain the biggest percentage decline with a GDP
loss of just over 8 percent, followed by Hawaii with a 6.6 percent loss.
Other states seen facing economic losses topping 6 percent included
Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska and Louisiana.
Some states may be more insulated from the economic jolt due to reliance
on government and real estate as major economic forces. They include
Maryland, Virginia, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut.
The report is available at
http://healthyamericans.org/reports/flurecession/.
There have been only a few forecasts of the impact of a flu pandemic on
the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office has forecast a 4.25
percent one-year national GDP drop.
A Labor Department agency last month issued workplace safety and health
guidance to help employers prepare for a pandemic. It urged employers
let employees work from home, encourage sick workers to stay home
without reprisals and develop plans to operate with a reduced work force.
The government last month also issued guidelines for communities to
combat a flu pandemic before a vaccine is available. It recommended
isolation measures in a serious pandemic like closing schools, canceling
public gatherings and quarantining households with sick people.